Oregonian beat writer is wrong: The Ducks are worthy

The Oregonian’s resident Duck expert Kevin Goe characterizes U of O’s football season as a disappointment with blood on the hands of its porous defense and an offense that uses lots of smoke and mirrors to hide its deficiencies. Statistics reveal a different story about how Oregon closed out its 2015 campaign.

By Andrew Pridgen

Nine wins a failure?

Six straight to end the season, four of them against ranked teams, not satisfying?

“This Oregon team doesn’t belong in a New Year’s Day bowl game,” Oregonian beat writer Ken Goe postulates in his latest column.

But the team that barely squeaks by 3-9 South Carolina is a shoo-in for a number-one ranking? The team who beat the team who beat Notre Dame Saturday should be facing 6-6 Indiana instead of 9-3 Michigan?

The team that walloped the two entrants in the Pac-12 championship game should be watching from home New Year’s Day?

Whate the fucke, Goe?

Goe’s thesis is the Ducks are not worthy to face tier-one bowl competition. I say it’s the opposite: The Ducks are the team nobody wants to face in tier-one bowl competition.

It’s likely Goe, a Ducks’ football and track beat writer, sunk his incisors into the Ducks Saturday to troll for views. Six hundred-plus comments and 900 shares…not to mention this response by Sunday morning = mission accomplished.

Goe’s Kevin Smithing of his latest column (half-assing it and not giving a shit whether he gets called on it) is disturbing not because I expect a home state columnist to be an apologist, but if he is going to argue against the reason he has a job, he should at least base it on what took place on the field—not the fact that he’s got New Year’s Eve Bingo (<–actual thing) booked at Chinook Winds Casino this year.

Whether he’s guilty of Smithing, Goe certainly did not write like someone who covers the Ducks for a living or has watched much college football, especially Oregon’s brand of it, over the last half-decade.

He points out that Oregon State, double-digit losers of Friday’s Civil War game at the hands wings of the Ducks, came into Autzen last in the Pac-12 in scoring offense yet managed to put up 42 points. He goes on to expand this argument to a “what if” Oregon were to get a bid to a January 1 bowl against top programs like Baylor, Notre Dame or Michigan.

“Perish the thought,” he wrote.

Though he didn’t go on to write exactly why said thought should be perished.

So I went ahead and did a little research.

The Ducks right now are the Adele of college football. Nobody is inexplicably hotter. They are also more fun to watch this time of year than Last Christmas (set to surpass 100 million views this holiday season btw).

They finished six games over .500 and one game out of national title contention because they play a brand of football that is predicated on uptempo offense. Just as the Golden State Warriors still draw unbelievers because a jump-shooting team isn’t supposed to be sustainable in the NBA, the Ducks draw ire—even from their own backyard beat writers, apparently—for featuring a style of play predicated on rhythm and movement. And when one key set piece goes down and that beat skips a beat, bad things can happen.

In that respect, Vernon Adams is more jazz drummer than quarterback. When he’s healthy and the offense is clicking they will outscore the opponent, period. When he’s not, the rest of the team seems to be running around off-key unable to find their spacing, pace and tone.

The effects of Adams’ absence were no more apparent than in the Duck’s three losses:

  1. Michigan State 31, Oregon 28: In East Lansing, Oregon lost by a field goal to the current odds-on favorite to win the CFP championship trophy in January. Adams, who was playing with a broken index finger on his right throwing hand, threw two interceptions but still went 22-of-39 passing for 309 yards. Adams missed Byron Marshall on a wide-open route on the team’s last drive and the game was over. Oregon’s defense surrendered fewer than 200 (197) yards on the ground while limiting likely no. 1 overall pick Connor Cook to 20 of 32 passing for 192 yards with two touchdowns and an interception. Cook was also three-and-out during Michigan State’s last two possessions.
  2. Utah 62, Oregon 20: The nadir of the alt uniform-era Ducks football program and Oregon’s worst loss in a decade. Adams, who started, was playing with that same broken finger. After a couple series he was pulled and backup Jeff Lockie looked confused about which color jersey to pass to. Combined, they finished just 14 of 30 for just 178 yards. Lockie threw a pair of picks and each quarterback had a touchdown. Oregon’s offense never sparked and because of that the defense’s soft targets were exploited by the Utes, especially in the run game. Utah set the pace with 273 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
  3. Washington State 45, Oregon 38: Oregon suffered a double-overtime loss to Washington State. The Cougs went on to an 8-4 season in spite of a disappointing Apple Cup loss to Washington Friday. Wazzu quarterback Luke Falk threw for season-high 505 yards and five touchdowns as the Cougs vanquished an eight-game losing streak to the Ducks. Adams was out entirely with both Lockie and Eugene native/walk-on Taylor Alie rotating. Lockie looked slightly better than against Utah and threw for 123 yards and two touchdowns.

The next week, Adams got healthy and Oregon pulled out a victory at Washington and the rest…well, you know.

The common denominator here isn’t the defense, it’s having a healthy and athletic play caller under center. Goe addresses this, noting the Ducks are 9-3 thanks to “an escape artist at quarterback who can ad-lib a broken play into a ‘SportsCenter’ highlight, and some lucky bounces.”

This throwaway line is not only disrespectful to Adams’ seamless execution of Scott Frost’s offense, but I’m sort of stuck on the fact that Goe put air quotes around SportsCenter. Is it a euphemism? Like when I’m staying at a Courtyard by Marriott and someone calls me and I say I’m “laying on the bed watching the ‘Golden Girls’.” That’s code for let me call you back in five minutes, I’m about to jerk off before I go down to the lobby and figure out where the nearest PF Changs is.

Goe scribbled this on his Shoebox Christmas Card to Oregon QB Marcus Mariota this time last year: “I believe Mariota is the best college player this season and one of the best I’ve seen in more than three decades in the business. He also is humble, team-oriented, studious and has been a public credit to his university.”

Did Mariota come over and water his plants and pick up his mail while he was on vacation too?

Last year, a healthy Mariota threw for 3,461 yards to Adams’ 2,446 of 2015. That’s about a thousand more. Now consider Mariota had more than 200 more attempts and didn’t nurse a broken hand for seven weeks. Otherwise, the quarterbacks’ stats are strikingly similar: Mariota’s completion rating last year was 68.3 to Adams’ 64.6. Mariota’s rating, touted as among the greats in college football history, was 181.7 to Adams’ 179.6.

Not a very big margin to separate “one of the best in more than three decades” from an “escape artist.”

Look below for a sample of what else the Ducks’ offense, led by a grad transfer Houdini, managed to accomplish this season against a Pac-12 which featured eight ranked teams at one point and five ranked to end the season:

Pac-12 offensive leaders:

Quarterback Rating:

  1. Vernon Adams – 179.6

Rushing Yards:

  1. Royce Freeman – 1,706

Total Offense:

  1. Oregon – 6,578 (548 yards/game)

Rushing:

  1. Oregon – 3,473 (6.1 per carry)

First Downs:

  1. Oregon – 313

“That there are a million things to fix on this defense should be disconcerting for a team with one game left to play,” Goe wrote, building off head coach Mark Helfrich’s comment that there are a “million things” the Ducks can clean up before their late-December appearance, likely to take place in the basement of the Alamo.

But are there? Or was Helfrich overdoing his usual overdone self-deprecation act? A closer look reveals Oregon’s defense was more transitioning and inconsistent than bad enough to pillory. Oregon finished the regular season seventh in the league in solo tackles but first in sacks; near the bottom of the league in passes defended (35) and near the top with interceptions (13). Deforest Buckner was one of the dominant D linemen in the country and a midseason overhaul featuring a quartet of young DBs still learning on the job defined the secondary: Tyree Robinson moved to cornerback after starting the first five games at safety. Charles Nelson moved from wide receiver to safety. And first-year starter sophomores Juwaan Williams and Arrion Springs improved steadily in the season’s second half.

At this point, I agree it does seem like an unfair fight against the Baylors, Michigans and Notre Dames. To paraphrase Rod Tidwell, Oregon smokes all these fools.

If Goe’s column was anything, it was premature anointing those three week 13 losers before their time.

But that’s not where Goe’s position ultimately fails. As the Ducks’ beat writer for the largest publication in the state of Oregon, he has a responsibility to report the truth—or at least base his opinions on it. Nobody in any other part of the world is going to study and critique the Ducks with more veracity. And nobody is better qualified to tout the strengths of a program that overcame early season inconsistency and injuries to finish on such a high note.

Nobody has the kind of platform Goe has.

So to waste it on knee-jerk opinion over fact; to favor hand-wringing over high fives, just doesn’t seem an appropriate way recognize a team that started 3-3 and got better every game from there.

Or to put it another way: Would a SEC, B1G or ACC beat writer critique their representative institutions using the same kind of platitudes? No.

…Maybe that’s why they’ll will be working tier-one bowl games in January.

Image: Oregon Daily Emerald

Pints and Picks week 13: Rivalry Week is a bettor’s Black Friday

Each week, during college football season DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. This week: #rivalryweek:

maginIAJ,

My neighbor is a big USC fan, owing to his upbringing. We frequently commiserate over college football while our dogs chase one another and sniff rear ends. I am amazed at his antipathy toward UCLA, a recurring theme in our backyard chats. I shouldn’t be, because it makes sense: the two share a city, part of a recruiting base and a league. But I suppose I always assumed SC’s rival was Notre Dame, or Oregon, which has been much more competitive with the Trojans during my lifetime/awareness of West Coast sports. But he hates UCLA. A win over the Bruins would salvage a 4-loss season for him. It’d soothe the pain of national title hopes gone off the rails. That’s pretty crazy. Despite their recent string of dominance over the Trojans in the series, the Bruins haven’t been a major factor nationally by this point in a season in about 18 years. For most of the games my neighbor has ever attended or seen in his 30 years on this earth, UCLA hasn’t been a threat to USC’s national cache. From the outside looking in, the hate doesn’t make sense.

That’s a big part of what college rivalries are about. They’re sometimes sensical but mostly not. A loss in a rivalry game can destroy or make your whole week, especially if you work/study/live in proximity to an enemy fan. Throw in family ties and the togetherness Thanksgiving forces upon us and it can either enforce a tribal or bunker mentality that brings out the most spiteful urges even in the saints among us. That said, here is a ranking of the best rivalry games this weekend:

6 Iron Bowl

Because ESPN is the SEC’s official hype machine this game gets way more attention than it deserves. In its best years it decides the course of the national title chase. In most other years it’s an intrastate battle between a contender and a scrub or two scrubs, with an overblown history courtesy of the Finebaum/ESPN alliance.

5 Oregon-OSU

AJ, I’m going to put this here as a placeholder because it seems like a bit of a locals vs. imports blood feud. Care to elaborate?

4 Florida-FSU

The smarties-versus-jocks/ag kids/teacher college is a winner for stoking rivalries. Throw some accelerant on it by having two ranked teams and the Gators in the playoff chase and this should be a classic.

3 USC-UCLA

This will be, hands-down, the most pleasant place in which to register your hate this weekend. Temps are expected to be in the sixties when the Trojans and Bruins get it on at the Coliseum. This game is so great because you’re a) guaranteed to see it in a well-designed classic of a stadium (the Coliseum has hosted two Olympics and the Rose Bowl is the Rose Bowl) b) going to see USC’s song girls and c) are probably going to see oodles of NFL talent. AJ, as you’ve pointed out, SC is essentially an NFL nursery and the likes of longtime pros such as Mercedes Lewis and Troy Aikman have made their way through Westwood. The games are almost always crisply-played affairs through a combination of skill and weather and if a team gets an advantage they’ll press the living shit out of it: four of the last five games have been decided by more than two touchdowns, and what feels better than embarrassing your rival?

2 OSU-Michigan

Take a drink every time someone says ‘Woody and Bo’ and you’ll be left-eye shut, knee-walking housed by halftime. For some reason those particular names are followed by ‘are watching from Heaven and enjoying this one.’ That fully sets aside the fact that Woody Hayes was an evil asshole who struck opposing fans and players with vigor. Any Heaven that may have him is suspect. Also, do you really want to picture those two watching a game? Schembechler was a loudmouthed cuss with a grating Michigan accent (I say this as someone from Michigan) and they’d re-kill one another by halftime. It’s that hate that makes this rivalry particularly special. Born of an actual 19th century bloodless battle between militias from the two states for… Toledo… the animosity between Michiganders and Ohioans elevates whatever is happening on the field to a matter of great import. That holds true even in years when John Cooper is crashing the Buckeye program and Brady Hoke is sending kids out for their third and fourth concussions of the day. This year, both teams enter with 1 league loss and an off-chance of making the B1G title game.

1 Bedlam

Bedlam is the Big 12’s most redeeming feature. It’s an academic backwater league full of shiny oil money stadiums and Texas’ ego. That said, Big 12 games in November are how God intended football to be played. 80-plus point affairs under the lights in frosty conditions. Quarterbacks who torch secondaries and secondaries who oblige said torchings. This is the land of Sam Bradford and Brandon Weeden, who, whatever their failings at the next level, could friggin’ sling it during their days on the Great Plains. With Mike Gundy’s accent at Oklahoma State and Bob Stoops’ continued excellence at Oklahoma, Bedlam is an Ender’s Game-style war where you dare not get out of your seat for fear of missing something really spectacular. Bedlam has gone to overtime twice in the last five years and has only been decided by more than two possessions just once in that period. Gameday will be on hand in Stillwater Saturday and your TV should be, too.

pridgenIKyle,

In the fall of 1994, yes, 21 years ago to the weekend, I hitched a ride with a couple of older guys (remember when the difference between 19 and 22 might as well have been three decades?) about 45 miles north of U of O campus to Corvallis.

It was one of those things where one of my friends’ girlfriends’ best friends was dating some guy from Oregon State so we were going to go hit up his pre-game party, make our way to Reser Stadium and try to crash a little more of the after-party action. The game started around four, but we packed up my buddy’s burgundy Jeep Cherokee for an 8 a.m. start and made haste for McBreakfast before pointing it up the 5. Pretty sure we stopped for beers and snacks at the Plaid Pantry somewhere about 20 minutes into the trip and then again for round two of road sodas when we turned off the Interstate toward campus. There’s something about college and children that can stretch a 45-minute road trip into a time commitment north of a hangover Sunday viewing of Gandhi on TNT.

We rolled up to our host’s house around noon. Unlike the near-campus housing I was used to in Eugene—all wet wool sock smells and indoor wood paneling with lichen growing on it—this condo was new construction with some kind of laminate flooring that wasn’t yet broken in enough to be movie-floor sticky, sliding doors that actually slid and an un-landscaped backyard complete with a fire pit. There were various red cups scattered about like captured pawns and a beckoning beer bong dangling from a plant hook. Our host came bounding up to make our introduction and give his long-distance girl from Eugene (who we all had a crush on) a big squeeze.

My crew, a quartet of transplanted Californians, were nothing if not interlopers compared to the Oregon State students who hailed mostly from the rural parts of the state; places with worthy names like Pendleton and Hermiston. Our gracious guide, Sean “Party” Fowler was no exception. He looked like he was late for a Tim McGraw show in a black cowboy hat, matching Sunday-shiny shitkickers and just a hint of Kodiak on his breath. He welcomed us with foamy cups of outdoor-chilled Busch Light “just tapped fresh” he nodded. Along with some kind of reddish brown concoction that was supposed to be Jell-o shots but didn’t quite freeze. I liked the whole of him immediately.

His friends were warm and welcoming and spoke mostly of courses unfamiliar. The study of real stuff like animal husbandry and foundation-laying. If my mediocre liberal arts education prepared me for a job at Enterprise, they were going all Temple Grandin up in here as capable undergrads. These were men and women who knew how to do shit and, quite frankly, in my buzzed state, I was a little overwhelmed and a smidge jealous.

I only remember snippets from that day from there on. Corvallis was one giant mud bog. It was muddy in Party Fowler’s back yard. It was muddy on the walk to the game. It was muddy in the parking lot and it was muddy inside the stadium. It was muddy trudging around looking for a party that would let us in. It was muddy when I got separated from everyone. It was muddy when I walked a girl back to her house and it was muddy when I skulked around for a couple hours more after she wouldn’t let me come in. It was muddy on Party Fowler’s floor when I woke up in the morning. It was muddy on the walk back to the Cherokee.

Most of all, my memory of it was muddy especially in the gray light of the morning after. How I made it back into the house, I’ll never know. This is the day before communication came in the palm of a hand. Granted, I probably would have dropped my phone in the mud anyway.

I must have tried a half-dozen breakwaters as the sleety rain grew stronger after midnight. I even attempted to curl up on a porch swing. If only by the grace of a group of structural engineers lingering at a dying backyard party who let me warm by the fire and knew a guy matching Fowler’s description a few doors down, I found my way.

And so, Kyle, I’ve never returned to Corvallis. Not after that day. Two decades on and it lives in a convenient and warm fog on that bookshelf next to pleasant first dates and getting to pick up my first tab for my dad. I don’t know what happened to Party Fowler or his girlfriend. I haven’t spoken to my ride up there since the late-1990s, when I tried to get a job from him at Enterprise. The benevolent rivals I met that day who sent me safely on my way have long since moved on and I’m sure have created the infrastructure that connects all of the state of Oregon or at least discovered a healthier feed to get beef to marble.

Like the mascot suggests, I learned the Beavers are an industrious sort. I came away thinking I was the one lacking in backbone and ingenuity. Though, like any good Duck, I also gained that day—and have carried with me—the ability to keep paddling upstream as the rains bead up and run off my back.

Kyle?

maginIAJ,

That story is exactly what I was looking for. The liberal arts/useful major, locals/out-of-staters, rich kids/farm kids dynamic is what adds teeth to any good rivalry. It’s why Texas versus pretty much anybody in their corner of the map is fun, ditto Stanford versus pretty much any school from the Pac-12 South.

It’s also the opposite of the ‘story’ the B1G has foisted upon Michigan State and Penn State in their pretty-much-annual end-of-season showdown. Jim Delany and his money-grubbing minions would love for the Land Grant Trophy to be something MSU and PSU fans cherish. Since the real rivals for both schools–Michigan and, uh, I guess Pitt?–are otherwise occupied, the B1G has thrown these two together for two and a half decades now and it’s never really taken. Sure, there have been a handful of classics--TJ Duckett dragging PSU defenders into the end zone for his fourth TD of the game in 1999 comes to mind–but, like, I don’t bear Penn State players, coaches (except the one) and fans any animosity. Courtney Brown and LaVar Arrington could both sit down to a beer with me, while former Wolverines David Terrell and Braylon Edwards could both choke on one, for all I care. MSU and PSU are both, as the trophy unimaginatively states, land grant universities. They’re both made up of generally in-state, working-class kids majoring in everything you can major in at B1G state schools–arts, teaching, ag, sciences, packaging, you name it. Crucially, they’re 455 miles apart and didn’t really play before Penn State joined the league in the 90s. There’s no sepia footage of Biggie Munn and Joe Paterno or Duffy Dougherty and Joe Paterno or Muddy Waters and Joe Paterno’s squads getting it on. The ‘rivalry’ is totally a construct of the ESPN age. It’s a rivalry I was handed at 10 and told was a rivalry by the institutional powers that be, rather than intuitively, like my parents watching Michigan State-ND in different rooms because my dad is too tense to be around people for any notable Irish rivalry; or MSU-Michigan, which damns the loser’s fans to taunting the following Monday in elementary school. Those are rivalries because you just know they are. They’re rivalries because you feel the ecstasy and agony in your bones rather than having to be told so by Brent Musburger. Nevertheless, here we are…

Penn State +11 @ Michigan State

Did you get this line early? Back when it was MSU MINUS ONE POINT FIVE!?!?!!?!? There was a collective jaw-drop when the line first dropped Monday. Shock and awe. What did Vegas know that the rest of us didn’t? Was it going to be like when ranked Utah was a dog against a clearly disorganized USC team earlier this season and the Trojans handled business and the book came out smelling like roses? To their credit, most Spartan fans didn’t panic, and to the book’s credit, it realized that it didn’t want to lose a shitload of money and amended the line by 9.5 points by Wednesday. I actually like PSU +11 for the following reasons: MSU’s D-backs are young and unsteady and Lions QB Christian Hackenberg, for all of his over-rated glory, hits his deep shots pretty consistently and almost never turns it over (3 INT all year.) He’s been used more conservatively this season, but the weather is expected to be cold but clear Saturday in East Lansing and I expect he won’t have a hard time finding his targets. Also, MSU has been calling games so conservatively it’d make Barry Goldwater blush. While I don’t expect a Spartan defeat, I do expect the game to remain closer than 11. The Spartans will be playing their senior day game on the Saturday after Thanksgiving meaning the homefield advantage won’t be what it usually is.

Western Michigan @ Toledo -8

The Broncos haven’t won a game after Nov. 22 yet under Coach PJ Fleck and I don’t expect them to start now. Listen, for all the Row The Boat hype under the third-year head man in Kalamazoo, Western is a 6-5 team coming off two straight losses heading into the final regular season game against a MAC powerhouse in Toledo (9-1) on the road. A rainy day in Toledo will keep both teams on the ground, and that’s not good news for Western: the Broncos give up 5.3 yards per rush as opposed to the Rockets’ 3.3 yards. Add in the fact that Toledo has forced an astounding 24 fumbles–that’s close to 2.5 per game–and you’re not entering an environment that’s conducive to winning. The Broncos’ line, which is competent in the run game, is absolutely atrocious in the pass game, so if WMU is playing from behind, expect a line that’s given up 28 sacks versus a line that’s delivered 24 of them to reach an inevitable conclusion.

Florida State -2 @ Florida

It’s patently absurd that at this point in the season, the 9-2 Seminoles are the most battle-tested of the Sunshine State teams. That’s purely because their ACC “schedule” included Clemson. 10-1 Florida has dominated in point differential against the august likes of the SEC east–a division where 57 percent of the teams have a losing record overall and nobody save the Gators has less than three conference losses. The ‘Noles do this in the Swamp.

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Over 69

The 10-1 Cowboys were devastated last week in a 45-35 loss to Baylor, a more thorough beating than the score suggests. Oklahoma hasn’t lost in a month and a half, racking up totals of 44-plus points in every game of that stretch save last week’s 30-point effort versus TCU. Nothing is stopping these offenses at this point in season, even the freezing rain forecasted for Stillwater Saturday. You know why? Both teams have short games that are on point. The Sooners’ Samaje Perine averages 6 yards per carry and has 1160 yards this season. The Cowboys are more pass-oriented, but they have a slew of sure-handed receivers (QB Mason Rudolph is second in the Big 12 in pass completions) who can haul the under routes in and hang on to the ball. I’d look for both squads to light up the scoreboard at Boone Pickens Stadium Saturday.

pridgenIKyle,

I’m going to freestyle my picks this week. It’s the only way (good call on that early line MSU/Penn State btw. What happened there?) Not that there’s not value in doing research all week and checking things out that make sense (does that make sense?) in order to make an educated guess at the spread—but I feel like sometimes I get mired in the #sportsjargon which plagues columns like this. And the whole point was not to, so….Also, I was watching The Other Woman the other night waiting for the turkey to brine at 1:23 a.m. when I should have been sleeping and it’s so strange to see Cameron Diaz as not exactly post-menopausal Diane Keaton yet but getting toward that place. Hollywood is a bitch man. Especially if you’re a woman.

Speaking of Tinsel Town, there’s no place I’d rather be than Outer Watts this weekend (well, maybe Pasadena) for all the agreeable reasons you mentioned that make UCLA/USC the other fall classic—not to mention the only Uber-sponsored rivalry game in the nation. Autumn in LA is, well, mostly like summer anywhere else but with people wearing beanies and flannel just because of the turkey border that shows up on the Shutterfly calendar.

There’s a winking element of manifest destiny implicit in this showdown. Like, you can have your packed stadia and sideline history recollects, but we’ll make our game more pleasant than fresh-squeezed chaser and be good with that.

I also think it must be a strange thing attempting to attend a UCLA/USC game as a student. Like, they just don’t really. A college rivalry without the total buy-in of the student body is indigenous to LA akin to how the biggest metro basin in the world has survived for a couple decades independently from the NFL. And really, its only NFL fans are transplants who don’t realize there’s a million taco trucks and hikes up to Griffith Park hikes and hidden coves in Malibu to explore instead of watching Lime-A-Rita ads in some artificially dark pub next to another guy from Cleveland trying to become the next Drew Carey. In other words, LA is about a decade ahead of the rest of the country in that it has figured out how to ‘do’ football by mostly ignoring it.

On the other hand, at this moment USC/UCLA are pretty much the defacto professional franchises of record this season south and east of La Brea and so any rivalry is ginned up by fans of a certain age, ie., Kyle, your neighbor.

Now the picks:

Oregon -30 vs Oregon State

No in-state rivalry (see: my previous entry above) should be this lopsided. The problem is Oregon’s clicking, big time and Oregon State is a more dead-end cause than trying to get a re-apply for a refund on your 2012 taxes because you calculated wrong (<–wholly based on personal experience). Thirty’s a lot and a kind of week 1 Woebegone State vs. SEC Juggernaut spread, so I won’t be surprised if the Beavs keep it within 25. Then again, the final should be something like 48-14 which doesn’t seem like 30 but is.

Boise State -10 @ San Jose State

SJSU has let me down one too many times this year and by that I mean one, I think. Boise State is coming off two inexplicable losses to New Mexico and Air Force which tightened up the spread. Time to pounce.

Michigan +2.5 vs. Ohio State

Fuck it. Michigan’s better than Ohio State. They’re at home too in case you didn’t notice. Are all rivalry games this easy to call?

Oklahoma -3.5 @ Oklahoma State

Sooners are the best one-loss team in the country right now. The only team that could play them within a touchdown is the three-loss Ducks. A dream match-up we’ll never see in a field of four playoff.

UNLV -3 @ Wyoming

Nobody in Vegas has noticed that UNLV is actually a .500ish team whose record happens to be 3-8 and Wyoming is a .000ish team (and would be minus a strange win vs. Nevada) which happens to be 1-10. Because UNLV is momentum-rich wrapping year one of their five-year plan to prominence, I pick the Rebs to take it to the ‘Boys in Laramie.

South Carolina +15.5 vs. Clemson

The Citadel. I get it. The Gamecocks have looked mostly lost and afraid this season and that’s exactly why they’ll keep it close vs. the Tigers. Everyone in the country outside Dabo after all, is waiting for that other cleat to fall. The storyline sets up waaaaay too nicely for there not to be the threat of an upset.

Stanford +2 vs. Notre Dame

The game I’ve been waiting for Kyle. Stanford wins this faster and better than you can say Christian Jackson McCaffrey. Notre Dame QB DeShone Kizer has no answers for the Cardinal’s fast and physical front seven, and the Irish secondary is garbage and so are their front five. Stanford has the edge in every aspect, including home field. Sorry, no. 4, your luck’s run out.

pridgenIAJ

Last week: 3 for 4

Overall: 22 for 35 (one tie)

Oregon -30 vs Oregon State

Boise State -10 @ San Jose State

Michigan +2.5 vs. Ohio State

Oklahoma -3.5 @ Oklahoma State

UNLV -3 @ Wyoming

South Carolina +15.5 vs. Clemson

Stanford +2 vs. Notre Dame

maginIKyle

Last week: 3 for 4

Overall: 23 for 41

Penn State +11 @ Michigan State

Western Michigan @ Toledo -8

Florida State -2 @ Florida

Oklahoma @ Oklahoma State Over 69

Pints and Picks Week 4: Being in a long-distance relationship with Cal while crushing on BYU forces us to talk baseball and Hollywood Vampires instead

Each week, during college football season DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here, the boys are talking about Margot Kidder, Anne Murray and a potential World Series Game 1 matchup reflected in Texas A&M vs. Arkansas

Ladies and Gentleman, the man who has texted Sonny Dykes 14 times in a row with not as much as an emoji back…Andrew Pridgen:

pridgenIKyle,

What the fuck, Kyle Cal?!?! I spend all kinds of valuable work time vetting and sweating you…even getting all cozy with the idea of Sonny Dykes and—how do you thank me? You shit all over the spread and my pick.

I should’ve known. You’re Cal goddammit. At some point you looked around the silent as an STD clinic Darrell K Royal stadium on Saturday and were like, “whoa. Fuck. We’re winning.” Then you looked up at the scoreboard with none of the seconds left in the third quarter and did a little quick math—because you’re good at math, you’re Cal dammit—and were like: “Holy Fuck. We’re winning by a lot. Like, 21 points a lot.”

And then, for whatever reason, the whole Cal O-line went to queue up at Franklin Barbecue and the DBs went ahead and decided to shower up and go check out the Draught House before the line got ridiculous and Jared Goff was basically reduced to that one dude who’s been just DOMINATING at beer pong all night but has played so many games in a row that he’s fucking hammered and is starting to make bad decisions like trying to make out with every girl who’s passing by (because, you know, preternaturally she should feel his presence as the beer pong king) and all of a sudden he’s stumbling around looking lost and gets relegated to the ‘Is that dude OK’ part of the backyard where he’s either pissing FOREVER or puking—or both—and you think it’s probably mostly puking because he’s leaning against the corner of the fence with all the weight on his forearm that’s holding the rest of his limp body up by his scalp.

Anyway, that’s what I saw when Cal coughed up 20 in the fourth. The smooth-talkin’, hair slicked back, Axe body sprayed, Crest Whitestrips on the bathroom counter and ready to slay bro reduced to a mound of cargo shorts and RVCA shirt wondering what the fuck happened to the evening hat cocked all the way back as he scratches his head because someone stole his phone. Hell, the Bears were on so much autopilot most of the fourth quarter, I turned my attentions to the Mormon’s suddenly taking over Hollywood getting their idea for a Brian Jones biopic optioned, joining the Hollywood Vampires with Anne Murray (<– second AM reference this week) and just dominating from the Whiskey to the Rainbow—that I could hardly believe my eyes when the Cal final flashed and I’d realized…my run for the week 3 was over.

Anyway, our love affair (for now) is over Cal.

*Phew* deep breath.

Kyle, thanks for letting me drag that squirming to the edge and heave it off the cliff. Sometimes you just gotta vent and move on, look at the wonder of being on this side of the chalked up turf and thank God you’re not in a cardboard box with Margot Kidder. In the words of Keith Richards, It’s great to be here. It’s great to be anywhere…

maginIAJ,

A few deep breaths, man. The nice thing about this week is there is so, so little to get worked up about. Were it not for the Pac 12’s two electric games–UCLA in Tuscon vs. ‘Zona and Utah-Oregon in Autzen–I probably wouldn’t watch any of this weekend’s matchups. BYU’s trip to Ann Arbor is probably the premier early-kick matchup and it really just goes downhill from there. The continued extinguishing of any goodwill Arkansas fans may have had for waddling pork rind depository Bret Bielema may go out the window when he gets mollywhopped by Texas A&M at Jerry World, so there’s a little hate-watching you can do. Besides that, though, it’s a dull weekend. Which is OK by me, because baseball is at its absolute regular-season zenith right now. The Yankees-Blue Jays games in Toronto this week did Yogi’s memory justice. The Cubs are being led by Midway Jesus Jake Arrieta in a bid to save the Windy City and it’s just plum fun to watch the wheels fall of the Astros’ “Process” bandwagon.

Since I’ve got seams on the brain, we’ll make that the theme of this week’s CFB picks:

BYU +4.5 @ UM

Best current baseball alum:

BYU: Jeremy Guthrie (‘09)

UM: Clayton Richard (‘05)

The nod goes to Guthrie when comparing the two schools’ big league offerings, which are slim right now. The Kansas City starter looks to be in the Royals’ rotation come playoff time, while Richard is a nice part for the Cubs to have in the bullpen.

Last week I stepped off the BYU horse and paid for it when they went into the Rose Bowl and came out with a 1-point loss, covering easily. I won’t make the same mistake twice, certainly not when the wheels are ready to fall off the Harbaugh machine in Ann Arbor after feasting on subpar opponents the last two weeks. BYU’s pass defense mostly held UCLA freshman QB Josh Rosen in check last week, meaning they shouldn’t have much of a problem with Michigan’s spare part rental Jake Rudock. I like the Cougars to cover in the Big House because nobody has pulled away from them yet.

NIU +4.5 @ Boston College

Best current baseball alum:

NIU: None

BC: Eric Campbell (‘08)

Slim damn pickins between these two cold-weather schools on the Diamond. Campbell is a reserve infielder for the Mets, which means he should be in baseball for roughly 100 more at-bats.

On the gridiron, however, this is maybe the most intriguing David/Goliath matchup of the weekend. You’ve just got to figure out who is who. BC comes from the bigger league but is pretty much a disaster on offense right now, having lost 14-0 to Florida State last week in a truly awful Friday night game to go to 2-1 on the season. The Eagles are down starting QB Darius Wade and are now forced to choose between a true freshman and a Flutie spawn (son Troy, because of course that’s his name) who’ll take over the reigns of an attack that is averaging 19 points per game against everyone not named Howard. The Eagle defense is stout, but are they enough to handle a 2-1 Husky attack that just held its own for four quarters against Ohio State? NIU averages 4.3 yards per rush and 12.6 yards per catch. They score touchdowns 90 percent of the time they’re in the red zone and haven’t failed to score once when they’re inside the 20 this season. Bet the #MACtion in Chestnut Hill.

Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Arkansas (Jerry World)

Best current baseball alum:

A&M: Michael Wacha (‘12)

Arkansas: Dallas Keuchel (‘09)

Holy shit, this is actually a possible World Series game 1 matchup. Wacha is of course the next in a seemingly endless line of Cardinals Aces and Keuchel is the one Houston Astro pitcher you really, really need to know.

Too bad the power of transference won’t work for his 1-2 Hogs this weekend. A&M is 3-0 and looking every bit the well-oiled Kevin Sumlin offense we’ve come to know and love. Aggies running back Tra Carson totes the ball for 4.8 yards per carry and while QB Kyle Allen isn’t the most accurate passer at a 61 percent completion rating, he is throwing for 8.49 yards per attempt and has 9 TDs to 2 INTs, so we’ll take the gunslinger shit for now. Plus, it’s not like the Razorbacks are really going to put the heat on him. Opponents complete over half their third downs against Arkansas, who haven’t managed a sack all season and just sort of lay there in the red zone, giving up TDs 80 percent of the time. If A&M doesn’t double the spread I’ll be surprised. Also, Fuck Bret Beilema.

UCLA -3 @ Arizona

Best current baseball alum:

UCLA: Gerrit Cole (‘11)

Arizona: Mark Melancon (‘06)

Where would the Pirates be without the Pac-12? Without their current ace or closer, who strike out nearly 9 and 7 batters per 9 innings, respectively. They’re both tremendous arguments for the conference, which is probably the best all-around sports league in the land, hands-down.

This one was a tough pick for me. 3-0 UCLA goes into its first real adverse situation on Saturday in a couple of ways. First and most important, they’ll be in Tuscon, with Gameday in tow, to see a 3-0 Arizona team with a probably-good defense an incredibly finely-tuned offense. Secondly, they’ll be seeing that offense without star middle linebacker/running back Myles Jack, who closed out last week’s win over BYU with an interception then blew out his knee Tuesday in practice. It’s almost unspeakably sad to lose Jack, who has been the team’s and the league’s most entertaining star since he stepped on campus as a true freshman in 2013. That said, Arizona hasn’t seen anything like UCLA yet. The Wildcats have run RichRod’s spread to a T over the likes of UTSA, Nevada and Northern Arizona, who have a combined 0 wins of Div. 1 opponents this season. The Bruins are nobody’s idea of a cupcake. They went to war with a game BYU squad last week and snuck out on top. Rosen looked awful last week against the Cougars–he threw 3 picks against 1 TD–but his defense has sacked opposing QBs 7 times this season and led the way for a squad scoring 35 points off of turnovers. UCLA also adjusts as well as anyone in the nation leading the half–they’ve scored 38 points in the third quarter compared to 7 for the opposition. If things go wrong early, they won’t stay that way. Wildcat QB Anu Solomon is the truth for Arizona but he holds the ball for too long and has been sacked four times before getting to the red zone this season, a telltale sign that he’s getting caught looking for a long bomb. Those routes don’t materialize often against the UCLA D (they give up just 179 passing yards per game, usually on short underneath routes), so take the Bruins and expect an exciting affair.

AJ, what are your thoughts on this week?

pridgenIKyle, I too have a bit of a case of the Week 4 doldrums. Maybe it’s a little bit my dysfunctional long-distance relationship with Cal (see: above and below). Maybe it’s my mind turning back to baseball as well as I have my MLB.TV set to stun tomorrow for the Huddy/Zito showdown—the most meaningful A’s/Giants game since an earthquake came and changed the fates of both teams, their fanbases and respective bergs (the A’s can eliminate the Giants from contention Saturday; so Zito’s start isn’t just a well-timed gimmick).

…Or maybe it’s just the lackluster matchups and still being a week away from meaningful conference play.

So, after a couple days squeezing these lemons, I did come up with a few attractive buys, they are:

Oregon State +17 vs. Stanford 1) I don’t think OSU is as bad as they showed in Michigan. 2) I don’t think Stanford’s as good as they showed in the second half against USC. 3) Never ever ever ever ever (ever)…take Stanford as three-score favorites on the road.

In their last five meetings, the no. 21 Cardinal are 5-0 against the Beavs. Though I do think OSU could pull the upset depending on which Kevin Hogan—last week’s Pac-12 player of the week or the one who ran scared from Northwestern’s front five— shows up at Reser Stadium (or whether Hogan is eligible to play at all after suffering an ankle sprain last Saturday in Watts). The Friday night game also swings the pendulum Oregon State’s way as Stanford comes off a short week and back-to-back conference away games.

Crafty OSU freshman QB Seth Collins, who finally looked like he could run a collegiate offense in the second half last week against SJSU, is still ranked last in the Pac-12 when he tries to take to the sky. Stanford’s staunch secondary won’t enable him to pad those stats. With Stanford weak on the run and the Beavs’ ground game suddenly working thanks to the personal injury firm of Storm Barrs-Woods, there should be some points on the Beavs’ side of its pixelated scoreboard in the first half and the second is a coin toss.

San Jose State -4 vs. Fresno State

It would be too easy to take a dig as the battle of the schools you attend when you’ve wasted two years being a Phoenix and you want to keep your shift manager job at Fashion Fair Cheesecake Factory (apologies to Stevie Nicks, SJSU and Sam Peckinpah, FSU) while finishing school—but I’m not here to tie any firecrackers to the tails of any Bulldogs or shields of Spartans; instead I’m here to talk about why the 1-2 Bulldogs are much worse than advertised and the 1-2 Spartans are much better.

SJSU QB Kenny Potter was booted up this week like a Prius parked in front of a fire hydrant, but should still start in Fresno. If not, the Spartans have capable backup in senior Joe Gray and a prospect that may be worth watching in third-stringer Malik Watson.

Fresno State has been my go-to patsy thus far this year. They didn’t come within two scores of covering against Utah last week—small redemption for my fourth quarter Cal fizzle—and have yet to show they can move the chains at all this year. I expect that to continue, even against a mostly young and porous SJSU secondary. The Spartans win by seven.

Cal -1 @ Washington

Well, Cal. I’m back. Miss me?

I know we had a little rough correspondence at the beginning of the week and I know I was a little harsh. But you also didn’t return my calls Saturday night. I know you were out in Austin with ‘reservations’ at Midnight Cowboy or whatever, but c’mon. I’m showing you all the love and I don’t feel like I’m getting much in return.

In other words, when I text edyou after that game with: ‘Great win on the road. But, like—what happened at the end…it was a more phoned in third act than the last Avengers movie?’ and you don’t say anything…well—my feelings get a little hurt (and I SAW the ellipses at 2 a.m. that showed you were writing a reply so don’t think that I don’t know you weren’t thinking about me).

And I know you needed some time to re-focus a little…and that’s fine. I just. I don’t know. Just tell me if I’m coming on too strong, I guess.

Anyway, that said. I’m all about moving forward. This week I think you having to go up to face Washington in Seattle is a bit of a task. You’re on the road—again—and Chris Petersen is truly a wit. If not for the Rosen One in Westwood my message boards would be all about Husky freshman QB Jake Browning. Last week, Washington also found a big play maker in junior tailback Dwayne Washington in the second half against Utah State. Washington checked in with more than 130 yards on the ground and in the air (OK, so it was only two on the ground) and promises to be nimble again this week at home.

What you’re seeing from the Huskies now that you didn’t see in week one on the Smurf turf is that they can create and Browning can now run more of Peterson’s signature moving sets a la his mid-’00s Boise State teams; see: pitch to the RB, lateraled back to Browning for a 20-yard completion in last week’s first half.

Peterson will try to stack his team on one side of the hash marks (#hashmarks) or the other to throw Cal’s defense off kilter. Cal has a solid D-line and future first-rounder in Hardy Nickerson (Jr.) conducting the jazz ensemble…but look out for that long ball.

Cal secondary’s pair of Darii (senior Darius White and sophomore Darius Allensworth) are more prone to wideouts streaking on them than a pair of squeegees as HC Sonny Dykes is starting to sub in junior Antoine Albert and freshmen Malik Psalms and Jaylinn Hawkins to try to shag a few in the outfield.

To offset, Cal’s pass rush is becoming formidable and if Nickerson can instruct his corps to (yes) stay home and not get fooled by a Freshman, the Bears head back to Memorial undefeated for an Oct. 3 date with another magician, Mike Leach and his Wazzu Cougs.

If this doesn’t happen…we’re breaking up. For good this time. Swear. Double-swear.

PNP Recap:

AJ:

pridgenILast week: 2 and 1

Overall: 8 for 11

Oregon State +17 vs. Stanford

San Jose State -4 vs. Fresno State

Cal -1 @ Washington

Kyle:

maginILast Week: 2 and 2

Overall: 6 for 12

BYU +4.5 @ UM

NIU +4.5 @ Boston College

Texas A&M -7.5 vs. Arkansas (Jerry World)

UCLA -3 @ Arizona

It’s 2 a.m. and Oregon Football is alone at the end of the bar

Oregon Football hasn’t yet fallen far enough to need a comeback. But the signs are there this evening has come to an end.

By Andrew Pridgen

Oregon Football is holding a foam-lined pint glass in one hand and its iPhone 5c in the other hovering over the far corner of New Max’s bar. He’s framed by a trio of groomed blondes who resemble aging labs: attentive, demure and unsuspecting of their own mortality. Their hips look like they’re about to give out after a night spent on six-inch-heel stilts navigating various pitcher overage spills. Oregon Football says nothing but occasionally he teeters like a Bozo Bop bag. He lurches back to center and braces himself on the bar in the fake casual way of a seasoned drunk. One of his goons stands by, possibly waiting to catch Oregon Football’s fall as he whispers to a couple outlying bros about the New Max’s not being as good as old Max’s and how old Max’s was the inspiration for Mo’s Tavern. Oregon Football listens, or at least wants to give the appearance of listening, but says nothing. Oregon Football hasn’t said much of anything this evening.

Oregon Football forgets he emptied his pint glass already. He tips the lip to his and pretends to finish, gesturing for another. The bartender already has one full under tap and puts a quick layer of foam frosting on it before sliding it over. Oregon Football gestures demurely for the effort but offers no tangible payment in return as if his presence at the bar is enough. Indeed, Oregon Football’s presence in Eugene has been enough for the last decade and change.

The bartender brings the lights up to a dim—the reverse effect of when a movie is about to start. Whatever expectation came along with earlier in the evening leaves the bar in a mindful shuffle each time the doors open and patrons exit. In the background, bros rub their eyes and scramble to finish pitchers not yet realizing the girl they were working all night has just disappeared into the bathroom for good. Oregon Football’s guardians standby, the mood of the night emptying out trapped in their gaze.

The blondes look at one another with a glance that’s more a shrug and grab their clutches. They slide away from Oregon Football with nary a look back and giggle as they join the darkness. Oregon Football wasn’t in the mood to chase, or to be chased. Instead he takes a sip and considers this stillness for a moment.

Oregon Football a year ago seemed to be the only program in America. He could do no wrong, no harm. Everybody, even the old guard, wanted to be him. Everything: sequins on the uniform and a practice facility that looked like what the Playboy Mansion did in the day—was just right. All marketed and mainlined from unassuming and fauna-rich Eugene, the perfect backdrop for a fall sport luring recruits from the traffic of LA, the plains of Texas and the sex-with-teacher accusations of Florida. Leaves turning as rain is unleashed. Design and style trumping substance and staying power. He was Adam Driver.

The East Coast pundits had finally started to embrace him. Oregon Football, for its part, made them look right and continued with an efficiency that could be mistaken for exuberance and flash and new uniforms every week that could be mistaken for individuality. There was guile not guilt. In a time when sexiness matters above all, Oregon Football was busy holding gridiron tradition by the pinkie toe and dangling it over corporate sharks in front of the ever-stuffed bandwagon of the masses.

Oregon Football hasn’t fallen far enough to need a comeback.

But it’ll happen, soon.

Suddenly, they’re the standard bearer in the stuck-wondering-what-else-there-is-to-say-and-do-after-nine-months-of-marriage Pac 12 North. Utah is self-righteous and pitiless enough to dethrone the Ducks. Stanford still graduates its techbros to profit off the share economy jobs you dutifully take because there’s really no other way to offset the cost of becoming a singer-songwriter. Cal is nervously waiting in the wings, suddenly finding their name on the minus side of the spread. The Washington schools haven’t figured out a way to not cancel out one another but are slippier than their wet helmets and Oregon State will be there waiting, at the end, at home—to exact their revenge.

Oregon Football did what it could to re-energize its base before kickoff against Michigan State last weekend. It manufactured nostalgia biting off its alter ego Faber College and the Toga party we all wished we could have gone to during undergrad. Pandering, yes. But an effective move to stir up the faithful if not for the fact that most of its posterboy athletes are better aged for Flomax commercials now. Even Number 8, who packed his ukulele for Music City, seems a memory distant only one fall later. The affection Duck fans must feel for the most recent nostalgia must be disconcerting for the current staff and players.

But now, standing at New Max’s at closing time, Oregon Football is in its desperate hour. A head coach, who would be better suited for UPS shorts than a headset, doesn’t have the football pedigree nor motivational stockpile to convince the unconvinced. The defensive coordinator, looking lost with recruits of questionable size, speed and dedication. The offensive coordinator and future star, polishing up his LinkedIn profile. The post-graduate fellow under center, a payday loan version of a quarterback working out his gap year before the CFL.

Oregon Football for the first time in a long time is desperate at 2 a.m. He checks his phone again but at some point, he let the charge expire. The screen is black. His lovely song of speed and set pieces now a blurry memory of a time not so long ago in reality, but long ago in memory. Oregon Football remembers getting ready for the big night. For the right to hoist the first championship trophy. And then, it too was suddenly out of reach and out of reach for good. The couples at New Max’s who did find each other and chatted away the rounds are now leaving in twos. Oregon Football, still the star of a town on the dark far left corner of the map, now finds himself difficult to recall by a public whose adulation has moved on. Oregon Football finishes his beer and slips out into the night, unnoticed.

 

Pints and Picks Week 2: Musings on exposure to concentrated amounts of the one-percent, prescription meds, David Carradine, IT guys and the bets we make to make up for it all

Each week, during college football season DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here, the boys are talking about South Bend, Carmel, outside looking in on the one-percent, the elusiveness of the made-up game and wagering better through self-awareness, prescription meds and Craig Biggio sightings.

Here, ready to kick it 4,000 words live…Andrew J. Pridgen:

pridgenIKyle, Kyle, Kyle.

I hope you made it back from South Bend. South Bend is one of those places like Disneyland to me. Like, I never really want to actually go there because I never feel like I’m going to have as much fun as the people are having in the pictures. I also never really believe that campus and its history and grandeur will hit me in real life like it should. It has so affected and informed me in my fantasy world there’s no way the real thing can work out. Fantasy life: I went to Notre Dame instead of Oregon and now split my time between my regular home in Scarsdale, my summer home in the Berkshires and my winter cabin/writers’ retreat just outside of Woodstock, VT. A lot of khakis, that Jeep Grand Wagoneer with the wood paneling, some kind of Tartan fishing gear bag hangs in my mudroom and I can recite back the changes to the LL Bean catalog by season.

Instead I’m all flip-flops and burritos.

Life sometimes has a way of turning out different than you imagine.

I did, however, get a taste of the Lipitor/Cialis/sweater-tied-around-the-neck sect this past Labor Day/kickoff weekend. The family and I took two days in tony Carmel-by-the-Sea (as if Carmel could be anywhere else) California. No, the wine and cheese weekend wasn’t from my UNLV/NIU winnings; I just happen to have a buddy whose grandparents bought a little chalet four blocks from Ocean Avenue. in the early ‘70s. Rumor has it they were taking a weekend to test drive cars and this tiny beach cottage with no heat, no power, was selling for approximately the same amount as the Crown Victoria they had their eye on. They chose beach bungalow (<–they chose…wisely). It was built more than a century ago as a little community gathering lodge and has had (rumored) lives as a still, a flop house for hippies and musicians and currently stands to today (still no heating, still no TV, still no wi-fi) as an homage to a retreat in the day where people used to be OK sleeping to the sound of crackling pine breathing from the hearth and ocean foam exploding on the shoreline. So, maybe there is a little LL Bean in me after all.

Fortunately for me Brophy’s Tavern exists one enchanted walk on an overgrown wooded stairwell above the home. ‘The Broph’ is the place where through the decades I’ve gone and drank with professional Pebble Beach caddies, the wait staff from Hog’s Breath and pretty much every surly bronze sculpture gallery manager divorcee with a slur and lip gloss all over her teeth. More than this, it’s probably the only true sports bar/pub in that particular cypress- and conifer-studded zip. Maybe it’s a sign of the economic times, the fact that Carmel homes now cost decidedly more than a five- or six-figure income can afford, that every patron this weekend was all veneers and plugs to go with prescription drugs. I was decidedly two decades the junior of most in attendance and I’m not younger than anyone anymore.

Whilst there, a wind storm blew a giant branch from a dying conifer fell into my buddy’s backyard. Seems that the tall trees in Carmel are slowly perishing. They used to get their water from fog. But because the world is on fire and Carmel is no longer socked in and darker than the inside of a Titleist, these trees are slowly starting to perish. No trees = not as much charm. Not as much charm = not as many charming tourists. Not as many charming tourists = no economy.

So maybe the one-percenters I saw at The Broph were the last of a very literal dying breed. Maybe the new one-percenters are just at Burning Man, and if that’s the case, could give a fuck less about trees, or galleries or anything that isn’t directly vibrating on their genitals. I, in other words, was preoccupied by the end of something while watching Oregon struggle to beat Eastern Washington…even with the Eagles’ best player under center. Watching Harbaugh throw his Ann Arbor comeback on the DVR and watching your father’s golden domers look every bit as good as their independent counterpart from the Family City USA (Provo) both notching a win for their version of god and Jesus and his back-up dancers.

Which all leads me back (quizzically) to Arizona State and what to make of them… more on that below.

Kyle, your reflections on the alma mater of the real Joe Montana and the movie version (Vince Vaughn) of him?

maginIAJ,

Campus is actually pretty near the fantasy, you just have to be willing to pay for it. Loads of cream-bricked gothic buildings (even the uber-trendy status symbol student apartments and shiny architectural marvel of a hockey arena are strictly on-brand when it comes to the veneers) and stately elms. There’s something especially arresting about campus at this time of year, before the trees are denuded and it only shouts GOD AND LEARNING AND FOOTBALL HAPPEN HERE. We even saw a Glee Club out on campus during our pre-game stroll. It seems like every one of the school’s 15,000-ish students are involved in something–’save the kids’ in Africa cause clubs sell hot dogs in the quad, a group of women were selling charming Longhorn Steak House t-shirts depicting Touchdown Jesus standing inside Notre Dame stadium with a fork in one hand and a knife in the other ready for the ‘Horns to come in for slaughter, which they did. I think proceeds went to closing cleft pallettes or something. The whole scene is definitely bucolic.

The only disheartening thing was that, like far too many experiences, you pay to play in the club. Commerce permeates the whole affair, which shouldn’t be surprising. Some combination of miracles and familial roots in Michigan’s far southwest and Indiana’s most northerly reaches produced face value tickets at $125 a pop–by hundreds of dollars the best deal for anyone who wasn’t chasing a degree there. We attended a tailgate immediately adjacent to the stadium–and I’m not talking about ‘close’ but ‘holy shit that’s the ‘88 title team’s line walking past the tailgate’ close. Somebody saw Craig Biggio. There had to be $1,800 worth of booze behind the four-table setup, complete with a Dish Tailgater(™) TV setup and fried chicken and cakes and sandwiches and meatballs and a general air of ‘we could feed an army.’ The next thing that grabbed your attention was doing a quick back-of-the-napkin calculation of the money bomb Texas brings with it, even in embarrassing defeat. A fleet of private oil money jets–even today, in the era of $45/barrel oil–were lined up adjacent to the runway at SBN. So much Burnt Orange was shuffling around Chicago that the Cubs played Texas Fight over the loudspeaker at their Friday home game. A motorcade of party buses plied their way from the Windy City to South Bend loaded with guys doing the Texas Tuck and girls in neon Raybans, sundresses and cowboy boots. On Friday, I was fortunate to hit the calm waters of Lake Michigan on a pair of charter fishing boats with our Longhorns family at a Benjamin a man for lake trout and king salmon. The flights, the rentals, the play, the drinking, not to mention the tickets–the thump a visit from UT provides had to mean 7 or 8 figures across three states and 12 counties.

One wonders where there’s space for the common man in this sport of college football. For someone of modest means–someone who didn’t grow up with a family who heads to South Bend or Austin on Saturdays in the fall or even flies across the country to follow a team–gaining entry to the club seems like it would require a minor miracle. One also wonders about the future of the sport when it relies on such a small subset to fill its cathedrals and buy its telecasts. In short, it’s a spectacular experience, maybe everything you dreamed it would be, but who are you gonna share it with?

Anyway AJ, you wanna pull us out of the literary xanax coma I just wrote us into?

pridgenIKyle,

To quote the prophet Jonathan Utah, “Whoa.”

Along with the above being one of my most favorite things you’ve written since your visceral takedown of one Brady Hoke I think your heartfelt travelogue raises some of the same questions I’ve been wrestling with/researching for the better part of a year as I try to figure out how I’m going to be able to one day afford to take my son to a baseball game. That’s right, a game.

Sometimes, I feel like being alive any other time in history—I mean, my lifetime has overlapped with that of all four Beatles, Richard Pryor lighting himself on fire (surviving) and the Godfather II. Any other place or moment, I’d have been as likely to get stoned, boiled, tarred or starved to death. Other times, I think we’re just standing on that cliff’s edge, kicking down a few errant pebbles just to see how far we’re about to fall. Of course, everyone thinks they’re living at the end times when it’s really just the untetheredness (<– not a word) of it all, the lack of real assurance that there’s any ‘there’ here nor is there anything beyond it that chases away our conscious thoughts of what we should be doing right now to take advantage.

Yes, this is me chewing on the arm of some glasses and jotting notes in my therapists’ pad while I shift in my Harvey Probber chair, but I think what you realized this weekend in South Bend is more just a pinch of mortality and a dash of morality. At once, you’re recognizing the homogenized consumer nation we’ve become. Insanely accessible communications technology has stripped away the things that used to make us individual—turned the dialogue into a single thought bubble. Your kitchen with granite and stainless and subway tiles. Your flight, business class. Your attire, decidedly China-bred neoprene with associated team logo. Your meals, curated from a thousand errant charms of chefs past and distilled for the palette of the monied and unconcerned. Raw tuna. Raw steak. Raw oysters. Your chosen method of communication, black screens garnished with cartoon face of your finger tip.

We’re not thinkers anymore. Not just that, we’re thoughtless.

But the problem has been identified. The question is, what are you going to do about it? My answer, wager:

Cal -7.5 vs SDSU/over 61

The 2015 Golden Bears’ sample size is small but mighty. Week one, Cal rolled up Grambling State 73-14. Head coach Sonny Dykes took a little heat in the comments section for running up the score (if you call putting up 35 in the first quarter and playing reserves most of the second half a dick move) but the reality is the final could have just has easily been 87-0. Yes, Grambling is a FCS school and the Aztecs are coming off a convincing win against cross-town rival USD, but the reality is Grambling gave the Bears a nice warm-up/look at the 3-3-5 defense—which SDSU head coach Rocky Long has implemented since the early ‘90s at Oregon State.

For those uninitiated or living east of Carson City, the 3-3-5 means three D linemen, three linebackers and five DBs. It’s not something oft-practiced outside the Mountain West/Pac-12 and mostly counters a spread, rifle or zone read offense. The only problem for SDSU is Cal QB Jared Goff, if not for Kyle’s boyband crush The Rosen One in powder blue, would be the talk of the conference. Last week, Goff led the bear’s offense to 656 total yards augmenting his already staggering totals as a junior: 7,481 yards and 53 touchdowns coming into this year’s campaign.

Dykes’ no-huddle “Bear Raid” (reminds me of Dazed and Confused) offense is kind of a hybrid of those listed above and plays more like half-court basketball. If just one of the DBs breaks down in coverage or gets picked up on the blitz, that leaves Goff with endless room to create with his feet, dump off underneath or hit the post.

In other words, if Cal’s able to execute—which they’ve shown they ab-so-frigging-lutely can, putting up school record numbers game one—then it could be a scary long afternoon for the Aztecs at Memorial Stadium. Look for the tone to set in the form of a flurry of jump balls thrown the way of bear wideout Bryce Treggs, who at 6’3” has a good four inches on any SDSU DB. Treggs also hauled in a trio of TD grabs against Grambling in last week’s first half.

If there’s a way for SDSU to keep it close to the spread, it’s by exploiting Cal’s unproven defense. Dykes’ bears in his half decade in Berkeley have yielded the most yards and second-most points in CFB. Last week his all-senior D line put the Tigers on lockdown as junior middle linebacker Hardy Nickerson, who may be a first-rounder in April, let nothing go by and Cal’s still questionable DBs only allowed 170 yards in the air.

If Cal starts out hot, look to be seeing the second unit by the third quarter. Even with a slow start, an Oregon-style second-half track meet should tip in favor of the Bears. I don’t see Dykes easing up on the throttle this early in the season as he tries to gain stature in the suddenly suspect Pac-12 as well as grab the eye of pollsters.

OK Kyle, I hope your faith in humanity is somewhat restored if not reinvigorated with a little Ommegang time this week. I’ll have a trio of picks on the other side to wrap…but for now—back to you:

maginIAJ,

If only Ommegang were that easy to find. I’ve actually been binging (and this will surprise none of our readers) on my favorite Bell’s beer–Third Coast. I’ll blame that for my picks being so damned lousy last week (1 for 4, ugh).

Anyway, if I haven’t depressed the readers enough, I want to get back to Texas for just a second. I have no idea if the Horns were as bad as Notre Dame made them look or if Notre Dame was that good, but I suspect it’s a mix of the two. The Longhorns program is a sad place, especially when QB Tyrone Swoopes and his… 7.6 QBR is considered un-replaceable. There’s literally nobody else on that roster Charlie Strong feels can top his 7/22, 93 yard effort last week. His backup Jerrod Heard got two plays before he looked sufficiently mystified for Strong to pull him for Swoopes. I have nothing constructive to say about the Horns’ defense heading into this weekend’s matchup against Rice because their offense mustered just three series that lasted longer than two minutes last week and the boys were getting annihilated. Anyone who tells you they have a solid read on Texas’ defense is on Charlie Strong’s staff or a liar. Either way, let’s do this…

Rice +15 @ Texas

The Owls can rightly be expected to bear the brunt of the Horns’ displeasure this weekend. An off-brand in-state rival is a great way to take out aggression, but I’m just not sure how Texas intends to dispense its justice since it’s walking into a gunfight with an airsoft. Rice can grind on your with its rushing game–their 56-16 destruction of Wagner in week one fueled by seven rushing touchdowns at least proved that. They can also strike lightning quick–one-play drives of 3 and 6 seconds and a two-play, 77 yard touchdown drive were all the results of turnovers versus Wagner. Rice isn’t likely to bring pressure upon Swoopes like Notre Dame could, but they don’t appear to have the kind of offense that’ll back down if its counterparts get scored on early and often. Look for the Owls to cover a too-large spread.

Boise State @ BYU +3

I think this line would be different if BYU’s Taysom Hill–who landed in the New World with Cortez, founded Mormonism, served six consecutive missions and will be gunning for a rare 17th medical redshirt next season–was healthy. The thing is, I’m not sure it shouldn’t swing the Cougars’ way regardless. Look at what Head Coach Bronco Mendenhall asked Hill’s redshirt freshman, 22-year old backup (God blesses missionaries to live with the playbook, a workout regimen and zero other technology in a foreign country for two years) Tyler Mangum to do as a replacement versus old man river:

Mangum- 7/11, 111 yards

Hill/Themosticles- 21/34, 268 yards

It’s roughly the same amount of usage and success once you control for snaps, albeit in a small sample size. What I’m saying is that Mangum might not be that big a step down, and that should worry the lethargic-looking Broncos who barely eked out a 3-point win in a huge 16-13 defeat of their old coach and his Washington Huskies on the Smurf Turf last week. A night game in Provo is not an ideal environment in which to dial in an offense that went 8 straight punts to finish last week’s game. Look for the Cougs to cover.

UCLA -30 @ UNLV

Sign me up for Josh Rosen’s newsletter. Honestly, the Bruins’ freshman quarterback might be every bit the world’s first ‘6-star recruit.’ Kid waltzed into the Rose Bowl last week, just four months after prom, and mercilessly mollywhopped a game ACC squad in Virginia by hitting 28/35 for 351 yards and three touchdowns through the air. Coaches–Jim Mora least of all–aren’t just handing out 35 attempts a game to freshmen anywhere else in the country. Add in the fact that UCLA’s fanbase has the kid on their radar and Vegas is just a sun-scorched four-hour drive away and UNLV’s home base will be rocking for a primetime showdown. It’s almost ancillary to the equation that the Rebs were giving up 14 yards per catch to a MAC school last week, and that they allowed four touchdowns on the last seven drives they saw.

Oregon @ Michigan State Over 66.5

Neither defense looked great last week, and both offenses soared. I’m licking my lips at the potential for a shootout between the squads of this site’s proprietors. AJ, we saw Michigan State pile on the points early last year and then fall flat as heat and the Ducks’ D took a toll up in Autzen. The weather is going to be 66 and maybe cloudy Saturday for a beautiful night of football in East Lansing. I think if it stays dry Ducks QB Vernon Adams and Spartan trigger-man Connor Cook light it up. May the best squad win.

Back over to you for the big finish…

pridgenIThanks Kyle. Just like Scott Boras wants to limit Matt Harvey on pitch count, I’ve gotten similar word from my agent re: word count. Nothing more than 3.5 4k says he. So my picks, like Jessica Simpson’s time with John Mayer, will be quick and dirty.

Michigan State vs. Oregon (Pick ‘em)

I choose you Michigan State. And no, this isn’t some clever ruse for me to bet against my alma mater to give them that extra sprinkle of cinnamony goodness they need to ‘win the day’ Saturday; I just don’t think Ducks are the Pac-12 Norse team of record this year. And I’m tired of all the bars/restaurants in Eugene with offerings on the chalkboard. Like, just give me a fucking menu. Ducks’ head coach Mark Helfrich, who looks like my IT guy and has the same amount of charisma, seems to choke against the Big-10 more than Carradine in a closet. Scott Frost is the real head coach but he’s up in the booth penciling out his Stanford contract. Oregon’s D is more porous than Stan Gable’s mesh practice jersey and I’m still not sure picking up an Eastern Washington graduate fellow in Vernon Adams to take snaps was the most savory move by the Nike flagship. As Kyle mentioned, the Spartans are at home, one year the wiser on defense and Connor Cook had 12 months to figure out how to not fade in the third quarter. Sparty wins by two scores.

Oregon State +14 at Michigan

My second Pac-12/Big-10 matchup is Oregon State at Michigan and I’m taking the Beavs. Yes, I may be backing the wrong Oregon to best the wrong Michigan on paper, but whatever. I feel like everyone, including Vegas, has been infected with the Harbaugh bug. If you checked in on our pre-season podcast you’ve learned I’m no exception. But, I took a suppository and my fever broke and now I’m off that. Granted, Harbaugh will receive a US Women’s Soccer-style welcome in his backyard homecoming, but the Beavs will be primped and ready. This is the biggest game on OSU’s regular season dance card and head coach Gary Anderson (formerly Wisconsin’s Gary Anderson) is looking for some kind of statement air mailed all the way from muddy-ass Corvallis. Michigan is a recruiting class or three from having the right set pieces and even though they should be a field goal better than the Beavs, look for a lot of jawing for the khaki and Sharpie’d one as this goes down to the final minute.

Central Florida +16 at Stanford

Both UCF and Stanford stumbled out of the blocks last week. Stanford got out-nerded by Northwestern and Central Florida lost 15-14 to FIU in an equal battle of wits. The Knights were held scoreless in the second half despite having a pair of 100-yard performances from wideouts Jordan Atkins and Tre’Quan Smith, so QB Justin Holman’s offense was rolling but not converting. UCF’s defense was eviscerated from last year losing its secondary, two linebackers and half of its D-line with senior D tackle Demetris Anderson bowing out for the season with a knee injury. They may have a chance to get healthy against the Cardinal. Stanford had one nice play last Saturday—a 27-yard run by Christian McCaffrey on the first play from scrimmage—but ended up with 58 total rushing yards on 28 carries. Fifth-year senior QB Kevin Hogan was also a victim of the young and undersized Stanford O-line as he suffered three sacks at the hands of the Wildcats. Though unproven, the Knights’ defense is still better than the prior and Stanford, as mentioned above, may be head coach shopping by mid-year as David Shaw gets ready to take his turn as a coordinator in the NFL in 2016.

PNP recap:

AJ:

pridgenI

last week: 3-4

overall: 3-4

Cal -7.5 vs. SDSU

Michigan State vs. Oregon (Pick ‘em; I pick Michigan State)

Oregon State +14 @ Michigan

Central Florida +16 @ Stanford

Kyle:

maginIlast week: 1-4

overall: 1-4

Rice +15 @ Texas

UCLA -30 @ UNLV

Oregon @ Michigan State Over 66.5

Pints and Picks Week 4: No bye week for bad bets

Each week DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen will pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here then, is their point-counterpoint for Sept 27, 2014. Or, if you’re in the car, simply scroll down for the recap (they may be verbose, but it’s better than clicking through a slideshow).

AJ: Kyle, why are there bye weeks in college football? I mean, I get why they’re there in the NFL—basically an opportunity to get arrested in the club and for the league to fuck with fantasy owners who deserve to be fucked with. But there’s no reason for this in college other than maybe to see what FCS campus gets the biggest spike in date rape and frat house electronics raids over the idle weekend.

I only ask this because bye weeks in college used to not exist and now that they do, it brings an even bigger air of “professionalism” (air quotes) and indentured servitude to the amateur gridiron ranks. If the NCAA said, “We schedule bye weeks around midterms because academics” I’d be good with that. Happy even. But the real reason is to stretch out the post-season and turn college football into a 20-week endeavor (i.e. almost two-thirds the academic year) for the almighty bottom line—of which the athletes themselves see not a penny (and that’s where the lap top thefts come in).

Since you’re pretty good about finding out the why of things the way I’m good at identifying the season of Magnum PI (and episodes) where he tries to track down the ghost of his allegedly deceased wife, let me know if you know.

Otherwise, I take it now that you’re off the schneid you’re not taking a bye this week.

Me, I’m still trying to feel this week out like a Junior High dance. There’s no match up that stands out as a stone cold lock; and it has to be watchable to be (not a word: betable). <-One of my cardinal rules—the other is to never trust a Yelp reviewer whose mouth is wide open on their profile photo.

For now, a couple quick comments:

• Why is Wyoming traipsing around the country in pursuit of getting bitch-slapped? Is it like an anything-is-better-than-staying-home-and-risk-getting-shot-in-the-face-by-Dick-Cheney thing? First Oregon and now Michigan State? It kind of reminds me of those Pat Hill-era Fresno State teams which burned through their Southwest miles to go get rolled up by the SEC and ACC and Big-10 before limping back to the parched Valley and dominating, um, Wyoming …and most of the rest of the Mountain West. To be fair, Wyoming does have a slightly guttier squad than they originally got credit for (think corn snow-fed defense) and should give Sparty fits for at least a quarter or two. If you can get a first-half prop bet for the Cowboys at +10 or above, that’s better odds than your drunk-as-fuck out-of-town guest trying to pull a credit card advance on the gaming floor.

• Missouri on the road at South Carolina getting only 6.5. The Gamecocks are hotter than a rescue pit mix locked in a ’93 Aerostar in the parking lot of the Piggly Wiggly since forgetting Manziel was in the NFL and dropping their opener against Texas A&M. The Cocks have won three straight and Missouri is reeling from what should’ve amounted to a midweek January stumble on the hardcourt to the Hoosiers at home last week. Can Mizzou regroup or will South Carolina’s Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds harass QB Maty Mauk who already has four ints to go with 14 teeders …and, you know what, this spread sucks. Fuck this game.

…I’m going to pause right there and say I was running some errands with a buddy during the lunch hour today (he’s planning a birthday party for a one-year-old which basically means crappy burgers, a weird sheet cake that is actually just flypaper with white frosting and a couple of fifths because apparently one is too young to remember seeing your folks and their friends black out) and we ended up at Costco. Still $1.50 for a polish and a soda.

The thing is, we were the only sub-octagenarains dining there. All these Burns-postured McMurphys who’d escaped from “Serene Gardens” next door were gumming on these intestines and entrails pressed into a tube while gangsta leaning off their Rascals made me wonder: Do the old folks know something I don’t? Like, If I have one meal left, it’s gotta be Costco (because it is glorious, especially when you remember to ask for the slaw) or does it just kill a lot of time to try to gum down a dog the size of your shriveled and veiny neck midday on a weekday when you’re at the station of life when time, quite literally, can’t go any slower—and yet, you don’t have much of it left.

I guess what I’m really trying to say is, I just have a lot more questions than answers this week.

Kyle? You there? You still reading?

Kyle: AJ, the middle school dance analogy couldn’t be more apt. I have an overwhelming urge to skip this week completely and tell all of our readers I was off doing some really cool stuff. In reality, I’ll probably be reading Madeleine L’Engle and trying to stay up for MadTV and hope my father (who, coincidentally, is visiting this weekend) doesn’t come out and turn it off when they swear for like the only time in the whole show.

MadTV featured the stylings of Michael McDonald (not this one, not that one, this one), a USC alum, and that’s my segue into talking about one of the only games that probably matter this weekend. With no ranked matchups, it’s going to be interesting to watch Oregon State-SC (-9) in the sense that it’ll be interesting to see your neighbor walk out the door with his 14-year-old dog tomorrow. Hey, still on the right side of the dirt, eh Fido?

The 2-1 Trojans are a technically, I suppose, still in the playoff race. Stanford exposed SC’s inability to get anything done in the red zone with a run game that’s hampered when it doesn’t have room to breath in a game the Trojans won 13-10. Boston College pantsed SC’s run defense in a 37-31 victory on Chestnut Hill. Both of these tell me the men of Troy aren’t yet sound in their line play. Mike Riley’s Beavers aren’t very good at running the ball on aggregate—they’re 91st in rushing in the nation—but in the first quarter, few offenses are as effective at running and passing the ball as 3-0 Oregon State, who put up more points early (10.5) than every other team in the Pac 12 North. If they can kick the Trojans’ line in the teeth early, I think OSU Quarterback Sean Mannion can play keep-up with a very potent SC passing attack.

Surveying the rest of the college football landscape leaves that bye week to be desired.

American Conference favorite Cincinnati visits Ohio State as a 15.5-point dog, and that’s halfway intriguing. Looking at the rest of this schedule is sort of like looking at the area surrounding Charleton Heston after that ship crashed in the first Planet of the Apes. Guess we’ll have to get walking.

AJ: Kyle, nice call on bringing the pops to town during the week of bettors doldrums. Now, instead of sitting indoors and inhaling the second-hand smoke of the sports book, the two of you can ramble around the Sierras inhaling the first-hand smoke of arsonists.

I think we agree this is a trap week as far as NCAA wagering goes. None of the spreads seem at all enticing and, as you pointed out, the dearth of compelling matchups (besides conference-centric spoiler games like Stanford at U-Dub) make this the week to take a BCS breather—and set the crosshairs on October baseball.

Namely Mr. Magin, the prospect of four very disparate and very under-(over?)achieving-for-different-reasons West Coast franchises making it to the playoffs.

It’s a Freaky Friday moment for baseball West of Lovelock. You’ve got the perennial lovable A’s who went out and made a splash at the trade deadline, only to wallow in the second half like so much locker room sludge through the AL West with dead arms and a listless clubhouse en route to a wildcard berth.

You have the predictably unpredictable Giants across the bridge who had a fiery start and a nine-game lead in May only to lose two-time world champion aces Matt Cain from the starting five (still unknown injury) and Tim Lincecum (still undiagnosed velocity problems) but somehow picked up where Oakland left off and went not with the big trades but with the white-flag youth movement: Hunter Strickland, Chris Hesten, Erik Cordier and even skipper’s son Brett Bochy have all contributed on the mound. Back-up backstop Andrew Susac has been clutch off the bench and in spelling Buster Posey and infielders Joe Panik and Matt Duffy have been key contributors plugging the middle whilst performing at the plate. The suddenly youth-infused G-men didn’t have enough in the tank to catch the boys in blue with the quarter-billion-dollar payroll and the world’s greatest stadium, but they do have a good chance of beating the Pirates in the wildcard sudden-death scenario and finding themselves the object of Joe Buck’s scorn again.

In Southern California, it’s a battle of swollen payrolls and depleting expectations. The Halos, who had all but given up on The Last Investment Albert Pujols till he decided to come out of the orange groves and hit a respectable .273 with 28 bombs and 104 RBIS (and he’s not done yet). Mike Trout is baseball’s lone superstar right now and the singing cowboy’s starting rotation featuring innings eaters Jared Weaver (18-8, 3.52 ERA), CJ Wilson (13-10, 4.61 ERA) and Matt Shoemaker (16/4, 3.04 ERA) suddenly looks like baseball’s best even without the services of Garrett Richards (13-4, 2.61 ERA). The hedge fund-backed Dodgers’ have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. The once-in-a-generation starter-next-door has mastery of three pitches usually thrown in a way three different pitchers might; fastball, 90-plus, a makes-you-swing-from-the-heels slider in the high-80s and an elevator curve in the mid-70s. It’s like facing vintage Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddox—in one at-bat. Kershaw recently notched his 20th win, has an ERA under 1.80 and tosses 100-pitch complete game shutouts like Drysdale the get away afternoon after a Saturday night bender. Kershaw alone almost makes one forget that any player who came up under Castro thinks hitting the cut-off man is a Fredo Corleone reference.

You got your Tigs Kyle, but the prospect of not only an all West Coast World series, but LCSs makes me giggle. I know Fox shares Erin Andrews’ resting bitchface scowl when it comes to the knowledge that KC, not NY will be in the playoffs and Mr. Jeter’s farewell bonanza is but a week away from coming to a cleaned-out-locker and teary press conference halt. All that historic footage from the pre-device ’90s shelved for roll out at Cooperstown in 2020. And what the fuck will Ken “He shoulda been-a dentist” Rosenthal talk about as Buck cuts Harold Reynolds off on the cutaways with no DJ?

With that, I’d like to be a sort of World Series wager Sommelier. First off, like a fine wine, many teams age into BETTER odds of winning Bud Selig’s final Commissioner’s Trophy as the season matures. But like your great aunt’s Bradford Exchange plate collection, not all teams go up in value. At the start of the season the last-place Red Sox were 12/1 (ditto Rays). The aforementioned Yankees, who are now 300/1 to take a Champagne bath, started out at 14/1. The Orioles who started the season at 35/1 are now 13/2—not bad for a runaway division champ. And your Motor City hardballers are a solid 6/1. For my money though, I’m liking either the A’s or the Giants at 12/1 to bring the hardware back to the Biggedy. After all, Giants fans, it is an even-numbered year.

Kyle, I know you’re headed out the door to see nature’s splendor with the man who pulled you out of oblivion and plopped you on this big blue-infused chunk of spinning granite, but I KNOW you’re laying down your World Series picks this week… so, (Pacino voice) what’dya got?!

Kyle: AJ, I’ve never been more happy to talk baseball during betting season, a sport I usually avoid at the book like the plague. It will also grease the wheels of conversation with the old man while we’re waiting for his knees to stabilize after I drag him up a few thousand feet above his normal playing altitude.

I, too, think the road to the World Series is definitely coming through California. Too many hardball-related planets are aligning with the Golden State. Dave Stewart is LaRussa’s new lapdog in Arizona. Scully is back again next year! I found out, just this week, that they still have an MLB team in San Diego.

As a Tigers fan, I hate to say it, but the Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland at 9/2 to win the series is the best bet at the book. Jeff Weaver is a horse, Matt Shoemaker has walked one guy for every 9 he’s struck out since the break and Wade Leblanc hasn’t given up a run in his last two starts headed into the postseason. Everybody has been getting on in front of Albert Pujols and he’s been driving all of them in—he’s got roughly an RBI per game over the last month, while Mike Trout continues to ape Barry Bonds with his slugging prowess. Gordon Beckham and Howie Kendrick have gotten on-base as often as anyone in the league over the last month. There’s just no way I see someone getting around this time save some massive power outage from Pujols and Trout.

In the NL—and I know this won’t be popular with much of our readership—I like the Dodgers. I don’t love them at 9/5, but in the “who’s going to win this thing” sense, I think we’re geared up for a freeway series. Which, wow, Randy Newman is going to RAKE royalties from FOX. It’ll make Erin’s Dancing with the Stars schedule manageable—I won’t have to put up with her whiny-ass Instagram posts from a private jet about #grinding from coast to coast.

We’ll get some hoity-toity reminders from the New Yorker about all the poor-ass people who got bulldozed out of Chavez Ravine 60-plus years ago to make way for one of the top-five stadiums in baseball. It’ll be gross and engrossing, all at once.

The Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke have been hitting the living shit out the ball over the last month—all four are in the top-15 of OPS over that stretch. Even with Puig’s second-half power outage, I don’t see how anyone else keeps up with the boys in blue. Selig passes out his last trophy south of the Grapevine.

AJ: Gotta agree it may be Los Doyers’ year and hey that Randy Newman song was supposed to be ironic; like how big a shithole-where-small-town-dreams-go-to-die-with-a-gooey-tarpit-center LA is. It makes me laugh every time the Dodgers notch a W and it bounces off the Hollywood sign and into the night. I love it! I love it! I love it!

Oh, yeah, the Huskies are better than David Shaw’s listless and unproven farm squad. Take the dawgs and the 6 points against the Cardinal (at home!) for a share of the Pac-12 North lead.

The PnP Recap:

Last week:
AJ: 3-3
Kyle: 1-2

Overall:
AJ: 8-12
Kyle: 1-7

This week:
AJ:

• Washington +6 vs. Stanford
• SF Giants (or Oakland A’s) at 12/1 to win the World Series

Kyle:
• Oregon State +12.5 @ USC
• LA Dodgers (9/5) or LA Angels (9/2) to win the World Series