Pints and Picks Week 7: Requiem for a Ball Coach and Rumple Minze

Each week during college football season DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™ who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Ladies and Gentleman, the man who last week wrote a love note to the Nevada Gaming Control Board and ended up giving them their best idea since Keno…Kyle Magin:

AJ,

Do you think the kids get why a big fuss is being made over Steve Spurrier’s sudden retirement? For anyone who came into sports fandom since Y2K, he’s been a washout in the NFL and a middling SEC head coach at South Carolina. To them he’s always been a has-been, results-wise.

But for those of us who remember: My God. In the 90s the Head Ball Coach was perhaps the most-feared sight to see on an opposing sideline. He took University of Florida football from a slimy southern backwater without an SEC crown to its name to a revered national program by winning a national title, six SEC titles, winning at least 9 games a year for 12 straight years, winning 10 games a year for six straight years and perennially scoring more than 500 points with his fun n’ gun offense. He’s the only Heisman winner to incubate another Heisman winner as a head coach and put more bodies in the NFL than CTE has taken out of it. At the zenith of his powers, his Gators were the Sunshine State program you least wanted to see on the schedule back when that was saying something. Where the booster-humpers at FSU and Miami did it with all the substance of an oil slick, Florida was a bomb and Spurrier was the tinkerer who connected the right wires just ahead of an explosion.

Look at his lone national title in 1997–Florida’s first. Spurrier’s Gators went into the game against Florida State having lost to the ‘Noles two games beforehand. Spurrier implemented a shotgun set to allow Heisman winner Danny Wuerffel more time to find his targets and the Gators scored only almost every possession they had on their way to 52-20 victory. It takes brass balls to tweak the offense on a team that lost one game all season and scored better than 50 points in seven games. But after Wuerffel chewed dirt for most of the first matchup against FSU, Spurrier re-tooled and instructed a group of 18-23-year-olds on how to run a new-look attack on the fly, then put up 52 on the best team in the land.

When Spurrier was hungry, before he became more of a regular at Augusta than he was on the recruiting trail, before Dan Snyder and Marcus Lattimore’s knees sucked out his love of the game, nobody was more intimidating in college football. It’s a shame that most millennials will only remember the HBC for strolling the sidelines at Columbia between golf rounds and looking perpetually tan, rested and ready for almost, not-quite-there campaigns (a fantastic 2013 notwithstanding).

Kyle,

I know you’re going to find this suuuuuper hard to believe, especially in light of my nearly every-other-day stroll down memory lane these last couple weeks (I’m also thinking about visiting a Porsche dealership, strongly considering hair plugs and in the process of taking out a second to afford Veneers as I price out pool cabanas at the Wynn for Super Bowl weekend), I have a little nostalgia snippet involving Spurrier’s Gators.

Back during the halcyon days of HBC’s Florida (think post-Wuerffel /pre-Tebow…the Rex Grossman Years) my buddies and me frequented a bar in North Beach called Shannon’s, kitty-corner from Eastside West and Beach Blanket Babylon near Greenwich and Fillmore. Note: If a reader knows what’s in that space right now, please comment below.

Shannon’s was divey and sticky and always had that bar-y morning-after smell even the day of. Pitchers started around $3 and the food was over-portioned for the amount of drinking that was being done which resulted in a lot of, um, premature evacuations in the easily accessed back alley. It always had the exact same lighting as 1 a.m. no matter what time of day, so there was no guilt associated with such actions.

As a couple Oregon alumns a few years older than me made it their spot to watch the program’s ascent through the Bellotti years, it became a second home on fall Saturdays.

But there was a problem: Transplanted Florida fans of a similar age had already staked their claim.

They were a raucous if not uniform bunch. Annoying in their white hats, white shirts, white jeans looking like they were about to board a plane to Guyana with Jim Jones one week and alternately looking like understudies from the Blue Man Group the next. In retrospect, it was more of a thing that they knew how to college football just slightly better than the somewhat bedraggled and (still) flannel-wearing scrubs from Eugene. Maybe we were just jealous. Or maybe it was just the awfulness of the Gator Chomp.

Fortunately for Shannon’s, the Florida game was usually the early morning undercard and the Oregon game was the late-afternoon/evening tilt. And the universities themselves had as much chance playing one another as Alabama does throwing a big five conference school on its early season schedule.

Our interactions evolved: It went from drunken and intentional shoulder bumping as they were on the way out/we were on the way in, to trash talking over the trough urinal to that magical day when my buddy Brian, you know, your typical hyper-kinetic young self-anointed Master of the Universe who worked a fledgling job in finance but still made more than the rest of us combined—or at least acted like it—convinced me and a couple others to come to the bar with him early one Saturday. “I’ve got a plan.”

I (still) don’t know what his actual plan was, but the execution went something like this: Brian came in, threw down his MBNA card and ordered a dozen pitchers. I helped him carry them upstairs and we set one on each Gator fan’s table and Brian introduced himself. After he made his rounds, they invited us to stay. After the game, we invited them to stay.

And so it went, for about three seasons to follow, I was a Gators-Ducks fan. And I’d like to think that to this day Brian still has some of those guys in his book of business.

Now, every time I turn on the a.m. SEC matchup to serve as background to pancake-making or vacuuming and it happens to be Florida, I get that incredible/nervous-with-anticipation pit in my stomach. My mouth waters in a not-so-good but anticipatory way, like at any moment someone is going to shove a Rumple Minze shot in my hand with a plastic-cup warm Bud Light chaser. The Pavlovian itch on the bottoms of my feet that radiates up through my spine about how long it might take me to run down to the bathroom should things go sideways, and what Plan B is should it be occupied or out of order makes my palms sweaty.

Those were the true days of my college football fandom Kyle. And Spurrier’s retirement, along with Oregon’s return to dormancy (or at least doormat-cy), signals something I can’t quite identify.

…Now back to pricing out that 2016 Macan.

AJ,

Rumple Minze inspires a burn in my throat and a subconscious heave to this day. I understand the cold sweat.

Another development inciting sweat is this weekend’s Michigan State-Michigan game in Ann Arbor. For more than a few years now the balance of power in the state has tilted the 6-0 Spartans’ way, which is a truly strange development for anyone associated with the blood feud. For a long time it wasn’t whether or not State would lose, but by how much. Then during the Rich Rodriguez and Brady Hoke administrations in Ann Arbor, Michigan State’s fans got to enjoy an almost annual demolition of Michigan and whatever bumblee-looking jerseys they decided to wear to their annual funeral. Now that Jim Harbaugh is in charge, and 5-1 Michigan’s defense has pitched three straight shutouts, I’m nervous and I think much of Spartan nation is as well. State has looked shaky at best this season behind a nicked-up offensive line and young, porous secondary. Stops have come only when they’ve had to, not when they could demoralize a team and cement a blowout or even really a comfortable win. If this game took place in a vacuum, I’d be frightened.

But it doesn’t.

Nothing about Michigan State-Michigan is context-free. Slights dating to before the Civil War, when Michigan attempted to block Michigan State’s very inception, are written into a text that now includes Michigan fans tarnishing the statue of Magic Johnson ahead of Saturday’s showdown. Real, honest-to-God rivalries have a way of cooling off a favorite and fueling an underdog, of giving somebody with no business covering the man across from him a shot of adrenaline, and conversely, of giving a solid player the yips. Many of these kids playing Saturday grew up in the state of Michigan, and they’ll be hearing it all week from friends, family and acquaintances on both sides of the green/blue divide. I expect both teams to come out tight. I expect…

Michigan State +8 @ Michigan

Look, set aside the narrative and you have a pretty classic Big 10 matchup on your hands here. Michigan’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball, where they have held opponents to just 38 points this year. They dominate time of possession by nearly 9 minutes and squash opponents on third down, allowing just a 19 percent conversion rate this season. Opponents get just 2.2 yards per rush. Michigan State’s strength is its offense, which has been surprisingly resilient given the injuries to standout offensive linemen Jack Conklin and Jack Allen. The Spartans average 13.7 yards per catch, have given up just four sacks, and average 4.4 yards per carry. QB Connor Cook has been picked just twice this year against 12 touchdowns and the Spartans have lost just one fumble all season. If it’s not always a flashy attack, it is safe and efficient. Contrast that with Michigan’s offense which feasts on its run game but struggles with turnovers (three lost fumbles, six interceptions) and often trades high-risk passes for potential highlights from shaky QB Jake Rudock when it has to rely on him, which wasn’t much at all last week as the UM defense and run game did a lot of the heavy lifting in a blowout versus Northwestern. Michigan State has the better scoring defense (41 points this year) and I’d look for them to pressure Rudock on at least a few series into a bad decision. Saturday may not go the Spartans’ way, but they do cover.

AJ, Back over to you before we add a little wrinkle to this week’s proceedings…

Kyle,

Well, your wish is the Nevada Gaming Control Board’s command. It’s like they straight-up read your column last week and decided to do something about it. I’m referring, of course, to the board banning Draft Kings and FanDuel and lesser scams fantasy sites for real money in the Battle Born state. Nevada joins 11 other states in the ban, but certainly their ruling will be the most influential (think California with gay marriage). So, everyone should fall in line and these sites will eventually be subjected to the same rules and regulations as everyone else who’s trying to lift your wallet while distracting you with wings and beer and boobs and then, and only then—will the ads start to go away.

I thought the reaction from FanDuel was rather funny: On behalf of our users in Nevada, FanDuel is terribly disappointed that the Nevada Gaming Control Board has decided that only incumbent Nevada casinos may offer fantasy sports. This decision stymies innovation and ignores the fact that fantasy sports is a skill-based entertainment product loved and played by millions of sports fans.

Skill-based? Innovation? Oh lordy lordy lordy. That’s like a food blogger claiming ordering your extra meal for take-home from Olive Garden takes an advanced degree in the culinary arts. At least the FanDuel marketing intern turned on the thesaurus and replaced “is being a dick to” with stymies…a favorite word.

(Wipes breadstick crumbs off hands…)

OK, now that that’s taken care of, let’s get to a pair of quick picks that are officially codified and sanctioned by the gaming board:

Utah -7 vs Arizona State

This is one of a pair of Pac-12 headscratchers Kyle. As much as I thought Cal would keep it a one-possession/one-score game at Rice-Eccles is how adamant I am that Utah goes up by 10 at the half and then stretches its legs against the Sun Devils from there. ASU has a bit of an identity problem this year. A pre-season top-10 and playoff hopeful, they got smacked around by Texas A&M to open the season, barely escaped the visiting Cal Poly Mustangs and then two weeks later were notched on Sark’s bedpost as the last victory as Trojan HC 42-14.

In the meantime, Utah’s been nothing short of perfect, ruining Harbaugh’s debut with the Wolverines (which a lot of people are already forgetting about) and running the table since. Utahns know how to eat hamburgers, wear red, yell loud and say endearing things like “oh my…heck.” It’s true. Look for the Utes to come up big and break that 0-4 streak (winless since they joined the Pac-12) against the Sun Devils with their pass rush alone; and if you need any more convincing, just think about what damage Utah RB Devontae Booker (averaging of 133 yards per game) can inflict on the Sun Devils’ cheesecloth front seven and mired secondary. It’s going to be a long flight back to Tempe.

Washington +2 vs Oregon

I just…I don’t know. This one seems to be the Nevada thinktank making it WAAAAAY TOO easy on me. Maybe it’s a make-up for the Cal-Utah push last week. Maybe this is like rewards points for sticking with the oddsmakers and not being tempted by the FanDuels and Draft Kings acting as the supermodel arm of the #girlsquad beckoning me to come over wearing nothing but a clever grin and a Spirit Halloween pop-up naughty nurse’s outfit. Dunno. I could break it down by position (starting with HC Chris Peterson) why the Huskies are in every way superior to Oregon this year—plus they’re at home…plus they’re hungry (haven’t notched a W in the rivalry since Bad Boys II was in theaters)…but I’m just going to go with a more general narrative: Oregon football over the last decade has staked its claim on two things: 1) marketing and 2) speed. Their most offensive uniform combo of all time (unironically trying to honor Native Americans and shooting victims at once—I can’t make this shit up) in last week’s home loss to Wazzu displays the nadir there. And HC Mark Helfrich now has a trio of scout offense QBs steering his hapless Ducks into what I call a “Flex Running-Scared” offense. It makes for brutal television.

Washington and the moneyline. Bet the rent.

Kyle, I heard Lamar Odom isn’t the only one addicted to crack (too soon?) And by that I mean the crack of the bat…

AJ,

Too true my friend, too true. As much as I’m enjoying this season of college football, I’m so firmly in orbit around baseball’s thrilling playoffs that I’m going to have to science the shit out of some LCS picks this week.

You and I talked this week about how baseball’s final four is almost perfect despite the fact that our rooting interests are taking in October either next to Kate Upton on a Harley or finding inner peace. Toronto is full of big boppers and brings an entire nation to the party as its +1. Chicago is your adorable chubby buddy with the red cheeks and good jokes who you hope can finally hit off with the hot chick who sorta looks like she’s digging him. The Mets just have really great hair and an adoring media who’ll help hold the NFL at bay for a few weeks longer. What KC lacks in star appeal or good-natured goofiness (he’s a bit of an asshole, truth be told) is the fact that he can probably needle Toronto into a fight or four before this whole thing is over.

All told, it’s a hell of a shindig and the lead-up has been nothing short of extraordinary. With the one-game wildcard and close races for the final spot in both leagues, we’ve essentially witnessed a 50-day sprint to this point in the postseason. So fill your Solo cup at the keg and come on in…

ALCS Game 1: Toronto -112 @ Kansas City

This bet won’t make you much money, but it’s a smart one. Blue Jays Game 1 starter Marco Estrada seems to rely on his fairy godmothers to pitch to contact as frequently as he does without surrendering gargantuan long balls. Just three Royals have ever eked out an extra base hit against the Mexican righty, and he’s bedeviled table-setter Jarrod Dyson (2ks this season) and table-clearer Mike Moustakas (3ks). Estrada took two no-nos into the 8th inning this season specifically because he induces a lot of poorly-hit dribblers his rock-solid defense can vacuum up.

NLCS Game 1: Chicago +108 @ New York Mets

I wonder how Jon Lester will feel about being the only adult in the room at the Citi Field tomorrow? The veteran of October battles as a Red Sox starter enters the game with a 1-0 record in two starts versus the Mets this season–the Cubs won both contests. Outside of Curtis Granderson, who has been stunningly effective against both Lester and Game 2 starter Jake Arrieta, none of the Mets with a sizeable amount of at-bats against the lefty have mustered more than a single RBI. Matt Harvey goes for the Mets against the Cubs, who have gone big (6 regulars are hitting better than .333 against him) in limited ABs while also whiffing quite a bit (he K’ed 9 North Siders in their only meeting this year, a no-decision). I think the Cubs are an unstoppable force, though. You’re just not going to find an inning when you don’t face somebody–Kyle Schwarber, Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Jorge Soler, Dexter Fowler, Addison Russell, etc.–who can’t tee off on you.

Enjoy the games and have a great weekend.

The PNP Recap:

Kyle

Last week: 1 and 3

Overall: 11 for 21

Michigan State +8 @ Michigan

ALCS Game 1: Toronto -112 @ Kansas City

NLCS Game 1: Chicago +108 @ New York Mets

AJ

Last week: Push (Cal lost by exactly 6)

Overall: 12 for 16 (and one tie)

Utah -7 vs Arizona State

Washington +2 vs Oregon

Pints and Picks Week 6: OMG you mean Draft Kings is a fraud?

Each week, during college football season DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here, the boys are talking about the sucker bet of all sucker bets…and no, it’s got nothing to do with beard-growing or the guy next to you on your Southwest BUR-LAS flight claiming a Ronda Rousey sighting.

Ladies and Gentleman, the man who lets the old lady go in front of him at the window…before he asks for her OurTime handle, Kyle Magin:

AJ,

There’s absolutely nothing surprising about scourges on humanity one day fantasy sites FanDuel and Draft Kings getting the New York Times scandal treatment and a state’s attorney general investigation for probable insider trading.

The above-board sports gambling industry in the U.S., such as it is, works its ass off to keep clear of the stink of corruption. The reason you only hear of game-fixing scandals emanating from one of college basketball’s hinterland conferences once in a blue moon is that it’s the only place where a motivated gambler and a desperate point guard can avoid detection with a points-shaving scheme for a few weeks. State regulators, hawk-eyed book employees and a legion of gamblers know pretty quickly if something stinks.

With one-day fantasy sites, those checks went out the door. The sites avoided regulation by calling themselves ‘fantasy’ and classifying themselves as a game of skill, but allowed you to gamble with payoffs as quick as any slot in Vegas. It’s therefore totally unsurprising that they’re dealing with an insider trading scandal.

We’re in the Year of Our Lord 2015. The dudes who lit the economy on fire in 2008 are walking around now as billionaires after commodifying mortgages, watching them tank, and then making you pay for the cleanup on aisle America. Why wouldn’t a bunch of enterprising gamblers and coders commodify the already insanely lucrative sports gambling industry in order to hoover more money more efficiently out of your wallet, and then use the data they already have to get a leg up on you, the sucker?

AJ-I view regular sports betting–the overs and unders, the spreads we’ll talk about below and in every edition of this column–as a game of skill that’s likely a losing proposition already. The house doesn’t lose often or enough to reconsider their position in the industry. By chopping it up and letting you bet individual players, weekly, the house is gaining an untold advantage by introducing more variables than the workaday gambler could possibly keep up with. Throw in insider information? You’re a fool if you spend one more dollar on daily fantasy.

Here’s the deal: Keep the tables as even as possible. Stay with the sort of bets that at least put a regulator on your side. The sports stock market that is daily fantasy is a dangerous place…

Kyle,

Can’t say I’ve ever really agreed with you more on an issue. And this brings you back a long way from the time you made me see Guardians of the Galaxy in the theater. You pretty much destroyed my intro paragraph by nailing all my talking points against Draft Kings (no, you’re not going to be sitting in some ultra lounge with all your bros—mysteriously not drinking—wearing some weird FUBU-looking jersey thing and sitting next to a girl with a giant rack and an inexplicable wristband …about to bank $1 million) and FanDuel (no, $1 isn’t going to win you all the money but it will give you a hankering to lose more) but I wanted to throw in a little more about what the continued deregulation of the internets actually does.

For businesses like Airbnb (no unions, no TOT tax) and Uber/Lyft (no unions, no taxi authority, no taxes) there’s virtually no restriction on what they can/can’t do to their volunteer or “share” workforce. And there’s no incentive for them to take care of their employees (forget matching 401k or healthcare, I’m just talking about job security/basic workers’ rights and fair labor practices). All of these companies are investing overtime to cut out the human middleman (think: Airbnb-owned properties and driverless cars) so careful for the future you’re rooting for, because it most definitely does not include you.

But unregulated gambling currently may be the most dangerous conceit of all. Here’s why these fantasy sites are the ISIS of sports betting:

1. Insider trading: What you and the NYT pointed out. No regulation simply stacks the odds into the gatekeepers’ favor and can lead to…
2. Individual payouts/Collusion: Who’s to say gambling based on individual performance won’t become lucrative enough for a player to drop a pass or a QB to give one of his backfield extra touches? As the jackpots continue to climb (though not in proportion to what the host companies are banking every week ergo a class action suit) it’s conceivable that a pro could tweak his game slightly for a desired result and pocket a couple hundred grand for the effort.
3. It’s real money you’re going to lose without much of the pain of losing it…until, you know, it’s lost: Part of the beauty of going to Vegas for the NCAA Tournament weekend or spending a fall Saturday at the book is it takes a little (a lot) of effort just to get to that window. Though things can go astray on any casino floor and a true gambler’s going to find a way, for the recreational bro/chick who likes to fantasy it up on Sundays, “I’ve been second in my league three years in a row” and is so awash in marketing and sugar crashing Wild Wings that taking it a step further doesn’t seem like a gateway drug but a natural progression—well, that’s where it starts to get dangerous and people start to chase. A $20 side bet for one week can soon turn into $5k on the credit card, fast. Jobs get lost. Relationships get broken. Cars get towed away. Front doors on homes get slapped with notices …you get the picture.

While I recognize the irony of warning people against the dangers implicit in gambling…in a gambling column, we specifically research and vet college games with the notion that a few well-thought-out picks and a moderate-to-good success rate at the window enhances the experience munch in the same way that free mistake pitcher of Coors Light enhances an otherwise walk-in freezer burned meal of Sysco onion rings and chicken club with avo.

I also think when you’re going toe-to-toe with the oddsmakers you’re essentially taking your playbook and knowledge and methods and matching up with them to see who can come a half point on the side of being right. I’ll defer to the little “When the fun stops” brochure you can find inside the double doors at your local, The Hyatt Regency Lake Tahoe Resort, Spa and Casino…it’s got a really depressing picture of a sunset (sunrise if you’re an optimist?) and a pretty effective 800 number to call.

There’s been more than one night day that that’s the only thing I ended up with in my pocket walking out of there.

AJ,

It’s probably a sunset. GA support groups don’t populate themselves with hopeful people.

Speaking of the hopeless, let’s check in on the 1-4 Texas Longhorns again, just for shits. Since we last left the boys in burnt orange, they’d sputtered on a late comeback attempt against Cal and subsequently dropped a close game to Oklahoma State 30-27 and were taken to the woodshed by TCU 50-7. One of the in-state baseball teams, which, in a real upending of the norms, are now a million times less painful to watch, called for Charlie Strong’s ouster on Twitter, and UT blogs are reminding their fans that this is all Mack Brown’s fault. Things are holly jolly in Austin.

That’s why it’s the perfect weekend for the Red River Rivalry game against the 4-0 Sooners. If nothing else, the annual trip up to Dallas to play in the Cotton Bowl breaks up the monotony of the home-road dynamic so many teams slip into once conference play starts. A neutral site game–which at least some fans will make a trip out of–gives the Horns a little hope for something besides a dead-silent Darrel K. Royal or bloodthirsty road stadium. Still, though…

Oklahoma -16.5 vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl)

…the Horns are running into the buzzsaw Bob Stoops has re-assembled in Norman. AJ, is there a more impressive coach in college football for longevity and flexibility? Stoops was once a contemporary of Bobby Bowden and a then-relevant Steve Spurrier. He ran the air raid with a kickass defense and a nameless rabble of pre-Sam Bradford conference winners at quarterback. After a brief dalliance with the Nevada-style zone read, Stoops is back to the air raid and rode it to wins in Rocky Top and at home 44-24 against a previously flawless West Virginia offense. I see no reason for the roll to end this week against UT. While Texas has shown signs of life on defense–nobody has housed more defensive touchdowns (3) this season and linebacker Malik Jefferson looks like a future pro–but Sooner QB is putting up nearly ten yards per pass attempt against a run game that does a little bit better than 4 yards per rush. Stopping the crimson attack will take more bullets than Texas has in the gun. UT QB Jerrod Heard only shines in breakdown situations–he’s a show-stopper when he pulls the ball down and can hit the long ball with the best of them. But Heard only completes at a 39 percent rate in the second half. He’s not yet a guy who can sustain and finish the long drive that puts you in spitting distance of a playoff contender.

Central Michigan +7 @ Western Michigan

We’re going to finally find out about the 1-3 Broncos this Saturday in Kalamazoo. So far, the team looked admirable in a loss against Michigan State, hopeless in an L against Georgia Southern, expectedly competent in a win over Murray State and shaky in a loss to Ohio State. The 2-3 Chippewas–WMU’s biggest rival–have yet to win on the road this season but are 4-0-1 against the spread and looked convincing in a win last week over MAC powerhouse Northern Illinois. Western hasn’t yet put it all together this season and the defense looks every bit that of a third-place MAC squad–they give up 6.1 yards per rushing attempt and 14 yards per catch. That second stat is telling because the Broncos only give up 7.6 yards per pass attempt–so when the secondary bends, it breaks. That’s exactly the kind of thing Central can take advantage of–their passing game is good for a little more than 1.5 TDs through the air this season. Things may go the Broncos’ way in Kalamazoo Saturday, but Central covers.

Northwestern +7.5 @ Michigan

It’s tempting to forget that Northwestern 5-0 swamped a pretty good 4-1 Stanford team 16-6 in week 1. That’s because the following point totals from the following teams can be so easy to dismiss: Eastern Illinois, 0; Duke, 10; Ball State, 19; Minnesota, 0. Michigan might be 4-1 and on a roll after beating teams like BYU and… well, who the hell else after a week 1 loss to Utah? A Maryland team that’s about to fire its coach? A UNLV team that’s only now rising from the grave? Sheee-it, BYU is two plays away from being 1-4. Look, I don’t know if Michigan is back. But I damn sure know they haven’t seen the likes of Northwestern and its defense yet this season. The Cats give up a conversion on 1 in every 5 opposing third down attempts. They sack the opposing QB roughly twice a game. They’ve given up one red zone touchdown in ten tries. They hold a 6-plus minute advantage in time of possession. Somebody will unlock the Cats’ defense this season, but do you really think it’ll be UM QB Jake Rudock?

AJ, who ya got!?

Kyle,

I’m going to start the fun back up with a single pick this week:

Cal +6 at Utah

You and the loyal readers of this column know well I have a soft spot for the Golden Bears and the Utes. Both branches of the family go back to Cal and UC four generations and my sister never fails to throw on her embroidered Cal Russell Athletic fleece vest from 1992 and fill up her matching travel mug with three K cups of Peet’s Major Dickason’s Blend before setting out on her morning commute. Go Bears.

I’ve lived in Berkeley (three times) and that includes a summer (mis)spent attending Cal extension studying intensive German but mostly listening to Master of Puppets (the only CD my roommate and I had that didn’t skip) drinking 40s of Olde Golde and squaring off in NHL ‘94. See: this clip from Swingers. The fire road above Memorial Stadium is the Led Zeppelin ‘IV’ of trail runs to me and the first time I emerged through the tunnel to see a marching band playing on the pitch with the static from the expectant crowd making the hairs on the back of my neck stand at attention was in the belly of Strawberry Canyon.

I revel in the Bears’ return to prominence and though I’ve been at times both skeptical and overly effusive of Sonny Dykes, I do think he has recruited to form and proven that one of the great public academic institutions in the country also has room for a bag-o’-tricks offense known as Bear Raid.

I’ve also lived in the SLC and I do think predominant culture (<– a secular Utahn’s euphemism for the Mos) notwithstanding, it’s one of America’s great cities. If only they could dial in the air pollution (and by pollution, I mean Jason Chaffetz) like Denver did.

I’ve always felt like Salt Lake plays its most familiar role—underdog—best. Winter after winter after winter, SLC has to do this really good job marketing to New York and LA and SF to come visit offering free ski passes with the show of boarding pass, insanely reasonable rack rates and a public transit system so clean you often find the locals sitting down and enjoying their lunch, not losing it, inside a UTA car. Utah’s tastemakers take line notes on the reviews they read in the NYT and New Yorker and try to emulate, with mixed results, as the city falls over itself like Tim Roth as The Bellhop the two weeks a year everyone posts their best #snowbeanieselfie for Sundance.

Expats from SF, Portland, Seattle often settle in the grown-up ski towns of Park City and Ogden looking for a way to raise their children on four seasons of lakes and trails and aspen-lined peaks. There is no pretense in Salt Lake but like a stand-up comic three years past relevance, there’s plenty of self-doubt, self-deprecation …with a little bit of hidden addiction, to go around.

That’s why I was pleasantly surprised by the confident stride of Utah head coach Kyle Wittingham when I spent a few days shadowing him for a story in the fall of 2010 just after the school’s move to the Pac-12 had been codified.

Wittingham was the first coach I’d had that much access to and he set an openness standard that has not since been matched. His team practices emphasized speed and camaraderie and depth. Regularly, he would mix in second- and third-stringers with the starters. Redshirt freshmen and non-scholarship athletes got as many reps as a seasoned fourth-year junior featured back focusing on his combine training. Wittingham’s philosophy was that at any given time, someone could get injured, break out or otherwise “show (him) something.”

“Everyone who’s here on this field belongs here,” he told me. “They’re here to play, not stand around.”

Simple, right? Most good coaches do that. They distill these really grandiose, really political, really intricate machines of dozens of moving parts into one, simple, bumper-sticker ready credo. And then they get their teams to buy in.

Observing Wittingham was to see that his wheels are always re-mixing the way that message was going to be spun—and never stray far from it. Which is why it was heartening for me to read this soundbite this week as his undefeated no. 5 Utes prepare to host the undefeated no. 23 Bears in a potential primer for the Pac-12 championship: “We feel like we’re more equipped now than any time since we joined the league to compete in this conference,” he said. “We’re still not at the point we need to be depth-wise at every position. We still need to get more skilled and more athletic.”

The fact that Cal-Utah is the marquee matchup in FCS this week is a testament to a base that believes it’s OK to believe. It takes a long time to break into the national conversation but Cal and Utah are two programs that are just quirky enough, just fast enough and just good enough to be included in the playoff conversation now. Hell, I’d take either one to put down Florida or A&M at this point in the season, or in January.

As far as Saturday goes, the hype machine has Jared Goff and his demigod statline (1,630 yards and 15 TDs with more than 9 yards per attempt) squaring off against the NFL-ready Utah defensive front. It took a couple games but the Utes, who led the nation in sacks last year, got their groove back against Oregon (five sacks) and the front seven is the fastest and most skilled in the land. Goff, however, has been a road warrior thus far this year winning back-to-back away games in Austin and Seattle against D coordinators who were solely focused on him.

Since both Dykes and Wittingham are contrarian chessmasters, expect a SEC West-style stalemate first half as Dykes tries to establish the running game with a chorus of Cal backs and Wittingham stacks the box to prevent it (in other words: take the under first half if you can find it).

Cal’s wideouts will spend the first five or six possessions stretching the field and trying to give Goff a couple quick looks for the homerun ball as well as attempt to tire out the inexperienced Utah DBs—Utah lost both of its starting corners Eric Rowe, graduation, and Dominique Hatfield, dismissed from team—now anchored by safety Marcus Williams (three INTs) and Justin Thomas, Pac-12 player of the week for his shut-down speed and decleat-style hitting week one vs. Michigan.

Beyond this, Utah will be outmatched once Goff gets clearance from the tower for take off and that’s why I like Cal to make it a two-possession game at the end of the second half. The battle of the undefeated’s outcome will likely be left to one Andy Phillips (Utah’s placekicker) who will end up kicking the game-winner in front of the ravenous, but still self-doubting Rice-Eccles crowd.

The PNP Recap:

Kyle:

Last week: 2 and 2

Season: 10 for 18

Oklahoma -16.5 vs. Texas (Cotton Bowl)

Central Michigan +7 @ Western Michigan

Northwestern +7.5 @ Michigan
AJ:

Last week: 2 and 1

Season: 12 for 16

Cal +6 @ Utah

Pints and Picks: How to wager #MayPac

DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here, a very special PNP for a very special pair of guys—#MayPac.

AJ,

Here we are on the eve of the biggest fight night in more than a decade and maybe since Mike Tyson’s ascent in the ’80s. And, for as fraught as the Floyd Mayweather, Jr. vs. Manny Pacquiao fight is with complaints that they’re over-the-hill, I’m ecstatic to see America embracing a showdown between welterweights.

In the post-Tyson landscape the general American sporting public seemed to take only a passing interest in boxing’s terrific non-heavyweight champs–Oscar De La Hoya, Roy Jones, Jr., Pacquiao, Mayweather, Ricky Hatton, Juan Manuel Marquez, Miguel Cotto, Felix Trinidad, etc.–while the heavyweight division stagnated under the fists and plodding pace of the Klitschko brothers. While boxing fans have enjoyed the smaller divisions immensely, it’s like the mainstream sporting public forgot that middleweights likely produced the very best fight in the last 50 years (if you’ve never watched Hagler-Hearns in its entirety, find 8 minutes right now). The wait for some sort of heavyweight savior is probably going to take awhile (you’d have never heard of the Klitsckos if Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis were working the heavy bags) and the lighter divisions are where all the action is, so I’m glad to see them getting their due in the spotlight.

On the same token, it’s heartening to see most hardcore boxing fans not acting shitty about this promotion. The absence of a wider fan base made the die-hard’s heart grow fonder, apparently. For all the gripes about the fact that this fight is ringing the bell five years after it would have been a show-stopper, and the puke undercard, and the pissing match between HBO (Pacquiao) and Showtime (Mayweather) over control of the broadcast, you’re hearing a mostly positive narrative coming out of the boxing community. It’s good for the growth of the sport to see the saltiest insiders throwing the doors open to new potential fans.

Alright, AJ, enough of my Valentine to boxing. You think Michael Buffer is doing anything but drinking shakes, tanning in silence with John Boehner and speaking in sign language all week from a hermetically-sealed bubble? His are the most valuable set of pipes in America right now.

KM,

Before I get to any of my thoughts about the actual bout, and to be sure, I do have them (hint: I don’t think it goes near the distance and a lot of my wagering is going to be based on the fight’s three-rounds-or-fewer promise), I want to make an admission: Before I read this column (by you), I hadn’t thought of boxing since George Foreman’s name was synonymous with fighting in the jungle instead of cooking up frozen Costco chicken.

The Pacquaio/Bradley piece was prescient in a number of ways. Before anyone accuses you of jumping on the MayPac “five-years-too-late” bandwagon, you wrote Manny was robbed in his 2012 by the Nevada State Athletic Commission’s, in your words, “monumental screw-up” giving Bradley the decision. The rematch was validation of this notion but also too little too late…and yet, a possible preview of how Saturday night’s fight is going down.

It also started me on the boxing bandwagon. Which started me reading publications like The Ring which prose-for-prose is the best sport commentary going. Period.

The reason why? There is something untold and grainy and alluring about boxing. And I think the reason mainstream sporting society has turned its turned its back on it, is because the seedy underbelly is so so very close to the cream that rises to the top.

Mayweather is a dirty, nasty, lying and rich beyond-as-fuck son of a bitch. And he’s the best amongst his crew. Pacquaio, as you wrote in your fight primer, had to peck his way from the streets of General Santos City like an embattled rooster and yet belts out a mean rendition of Sometimes When We Touch.

Both may not be face you want on your kids’ posters, but at least they’re real. The sport is real. The gambling, the treachery, the blood and spit and grit, it’s there, flying off the faces and onto the mat. No faking that. The ring is surrounded by treachery and misdeeds and lies and swollen guts and even broader egos. Saturday night, Vegas will drip itself in $20k suits and $200k timepieces but underneath the showcase and the swagger lies the eternal question boxing brings: How thin is the line between unbridled success and abject poverty in this country? Is it really as frayed as a pair of laces tied and taped around the wrist?

There’s no knowing when a boxing match can get out of control. When it breaks free from the ring and spreads, then what? When it doesn’t matter what’s in your account or where your Bugatti’s parked, because, underneath the shimmering facade, we’re all just frail humans. Boxing, more than any sport, exposes that.

For the last couple generations we’ve tried to hide this elemental fact with marketing and lionization of our athletes. Athletes-as-heroes. They’re not. They’re human beings who can throw, bat, swing or hit harder, faster, more accurately than the rest of us clock-watchers. We’ve grown into a society that believes sport is an accurate reflection of its own bullshit.

Well, it is all bullshit.

All of it.

The appetite for boxing has ebbed in time to the appetite for hearing bad news, taking criticism, accountability and knowing that somewhere, deep down, nobody is safe. But the thirst for MayPac as the sporting if not cultural event of the last half-decade shows something else too…

But more on that in a minute. Back to you Kyle.

AJ,

You hit the nail on the head. I heard Jim Lampley say in this fantastic interview with Ring that boxing isn’t a white tablecloth sport. But after years of Ray Rices, steroids and Lance Armstrong, what is? Boxing is at least honest about its garbage.

Anyway, onto Saturday. I’ve been vacillating on how to pick the outcome. Floyd is the better boxer, though not by miles and miles. Manny’s open secret amongst boxing fans is that he’s not the huge power puncher he used to be and has been as much of a tactical boxer as anyone in the game for the last three years. Trainer Freddie Roach will have a polished game plan for Manny going into Saturday. I guess I’m saying Floyd’s tactical advantage won’t be huge. It’s going to come down to energy levels. If nobody’s getting knocked out, who lands more punches? That’s the key—the only—question regarding Saturday, in my opinion.

Floyd’s strengths flow from his defense. Opponents come at him, try to throw, miss, and Floyd’s right hand comes over his lead left shoulder lightning quick to land on their nose. From this defensive posture Floyd is deadly, that lead left shoulder not only presents a meager target for opponents hoping to cause some damage, but it allows Floyd to unleash a left jab while covering his body and provides a protective stance from which to launch returning right hands.

Throwing anything beside jabs and crosses is an idiot’s game. Floyd will step back and catch your big overhands like the quicker kid in a pillow fight and use his elbow to deflect uppercuts and, honestly, most jabs, to the air harmlessly on either side of his torso. His neatest trick is using the ropes to his advantage. You can see it in round 5 of his 2012 fight with Miguel Cotto and in six of the 12 rounds of his 2013 showdown with Canelo Alvarez. Floyd presses his back against the ropes and uses their natural give and corresponding bounce to counteract his opponent’s attempts to work inside of him. Leaning slightly forward, he awaits each combination and as the punches come pushes his body back into the ropes and away from the damage, taking glancing blows on his gloves and elbows. After weathering an attack, he bounces his body off the ropes and counters straight to his opponent’s lowered head and face, ending their hopes the same way General Pickett’s boys met their end at Gettsyburg–with an attack from higher ground. Watch Cotto in this fight. Almost every time he gets Floyd on the ropes, he thinks he’s fighting in close quarters. The champ uses his quickness and the ropes to create feet in which to fight where there were once mere inches. It’s deadly effective; the man is Sun Tzu in the ring.

Where Floyd deals in deception, Manny deals in the ideology of Steve Spurrier: Here’s what I’m running, try to stop it. An opponent is met at the center of the ring, greeted with some crazy-assed overhand or looping hook, herded into a corner by Pacquiao’s excellent footwork and then pummeled with a flurry of right hooks and wild left crosses with four feet of clearance in which to pick up steam. It is how an insane person ends your night in a bar fight. There is little thought to defense at this particular point. Fast forward to the 43 minute mark of his fight with poor Cotto and watch how the Puerto Rican’s night ends. Manny waits for Cotto to walk into his trap in one corner, closes on him, begins his assault and essentially chases the man into the other corner with an exposed face and chest while raining down absolute bombs that always seem to find a home on cheeks and chest. In the open ring, Manny is a complete fighter. He joins in the give-and-take of a match, shows a pretty small target and delivers his blows in lightning fast order before pulling back and resuming a defensive stance. He’ll take some shots when he’s on the ropes but delivers a pretty a solid counter-punching game there to extricate himself from danger. It’s when his opponent’s back is to the ropes that Manny loses his mind and can get caught opening himself up to danger. It’s how Juan Manuel Marquez knocked him out in 2012. When the Filipino Flash doesn’t deliver the blow as quickly as he once could, when those hooks loop a hair too long, opponents can find landing spots for salvos of their own.

Alright AJ, before I get to my pick, let’s kick it back to you.

KM,

Since I can’t front on your boxing knowledge, I’m going to go ahead and continue (end?) my little rant from above with quick comment on violence in America.

I think the medias gets it wrong with the party line that we’re a more violent people or that we thirst for more bloody action today than ever. Not true. Man is violent by nature. Why do you think he made up religion?

But we are inured to violence at an increasingly earlier age and with increased frequency. And by violence, I mean all types of violence. Porn counts, big-time. Interactive violence, like video games. And pop-culture violence from television and film to the 24-hour stalking stream of tabloid vultures; our celebrity-obsessed selves is probably the biggest growth sector of violence thus far this century.

As a result, we’ve painted ourselves into this kind of solipsistic corner, burying our heads in our devices and waiting to be outraged by the next school shooting as we simultaneously contribute to the problem watching and sharing acts against humanity over and over and over…and fucking over.

This visceral sort of out-of-body mindset carries over SO MUCH that when it comes to seeing an ACTUAL violent act, we ignore it. Paul Walker drove his car off bridges, through buildings, over train tracks with a moving locomotive about to cross in the multi-billion-dollar Fast and Furious franchise, yet his corpse was burned beyond recognition as he and a buddy took a turn too fast on the actual streets of LA in a souped-up Porsche. And there is no public outcry (at least not with our wallets) or association between fiction and fact or the dangers of consequence in the living world.

Sport is one of the only remaining sanctioned getaways from the cartoon violence projected on our black-screen feeds. But even that is evolving ever slicker and more mechanical, less human—much of the reason why NFL players are looking more and more like the Fox football robots each year.

But we still have boxing. Two men, toe to toe, knocking one another to a bloody pulp for prize money. There’s no faking that. There’s no pretense in that. No CGI in that. There’s nobody pulling out semi-automatic weapons in slo-mo from behind a billowing suit jacket. It’s as real a reflection of how far we haven’t come in the last two millennia that I can think of.

And yet, people decry the nature of this event of the century behemoth because they don’t condone…the violence.

Well, I say, the rhythm, the technique, the mastery and the majesty of this fight is actually a salve, a temporary respite from the one-upsmanship dreck and debauchery we’ve come to be entertained by. It’s a little bit old school—feeling a surge stealing a peek at the Victoria’s Secret catalog instead of going straight to the bookmarked bondage site—and, to me, a bit of a reminder that actual bone-crushing, jaw-breaking, eye-swelling violence…is horrific.

Sadly, we don’t have enough such reminders.

OK KM kick my soapbox out from under me and take us back ringside. I’ll hit you with my pick on the other side.

AJ,

WOOOOOO we’re in it now. Meditations on dissociative violence and poverty and pornography and the fact that two men beating the hell out of each other is the most honest form of entertainment we have. Since I can’t possibly go deeper, let’s ring the bell.

Floyd Mayweather, Jr. -130 by a decision or technical decision in 12 rounds

That’s a chalky, chalky bet. It’s the guy who purports to be a Yankees, Duke, Cowboys, USC and Lakers fan of bets. It’s also probably what’s going to happen. Manny has a special speed/power combination, but Floyd waited him out long enough to make that combination manageable as opposed to fatal. Manny gets drawn into playing a short game early–trying to be busy and rack up rounds while Floyd is in his traditional feeling-out phase. Floyd, on the other hand, is going to box for 12 rounds from the jump. It’ll be exciting early to see how Floyd handles the furious volleys and learns how to sidestep a freight train, maybe the best Floyd fight in about a decade. Once the tide turns and Manny tires from punching air, Floyd’s counter-punches will start registering on Manny’s body and the judge’s scorecards. From rounds 10-12 Mayweather will be countering PacMan’s attempts at homerun shots, which, by their very definition, will come fewer and farther between. It’ll be like watching a constrictor work. This fight goes to the cards and comes back as a unanimous decision for Floyd. Then we await the rematch.

KM,

While we tend to see eye-to-eye on most stuff (like not being sure whether Tara Reid is actually still alive), our wagering styles have always been distinctly dissimilar.

#MayPac is no different.

I laud your analysis of this tilt and can’t offer much in the ways of augmenting your technical expertise. In fact, I’ve been shadowboxing with the topic at hand (the actual fight) to this point. Though you’re the tactician on some counts and I bet based on history and what I had for lunch that day, suspiciously, regardless of how we throw down at the book, we often end up with matching results.

So, while you’re taking the one-shot easy money, I’m going to go ahead and try to parlay and prop bet myself into significance.

The Disclaimer: Parlays and props are sucker bets. They’re the swampland in South Florida version of the gambling world…but boxing is the Florida of sports…which is why I’m going all-in here on the funny money.

Also remember, Pacquaio doesn’t get knocked out (Marquez landed a literal one-in-a-million shot and it won’t happen again). And Mayweather has never been hit—which is why my prop picks are so Manny-friendly.

Will the fight go the distance?

• No (Fight does not go the distance): +230 (23/10)

I like the +2 and change too much here. I don’t think there’s a way a pair fighters who are both closer to blowing out 40 candles than 30 both go the distance unless they’re pulling punches in anticipation of a sequel alluded to above. Let’s face it though, once in the cockpit, the flight plan on this one gets tossed into the prop.

Fight Outcome Props:

• Manny Pacquiao by KO, TKO or Disqualification — 4/1
• Manny Pacquiao by Knockout — 14/1
• Manny Pacquiao by Majority Decision — 28/1

I’m taking all three of these, because, again, the odds are just too good. Where in the fucking world did Manny by Majority Decision come out at 28/1? I’m betting all the pizza guy’s tip on that fo sho.

Higher Punches Landed %:

• Manny Pacquiao Punches Landed %: +180 (9/5)

Not great odds here, but as close to a sure thing on the prop list.

Will the Fight End in a Draw?

• Yes: +1400 (14/1)

Sure, why not? 14/1 is astronomically good odds for an outcome that could well happen. If Manny fights just slightly better than Floyd and it’s a slow start/even in the early rounds like everyone’s predicting, this sets up a lag in the middle rounds and the eventuality of Part II very, very nicely. Mayweather-friendly judges won’t have a hard time blemishing Money’s record with a 1 notched in the third column.

Round Betting:

• Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. to win in round 5 — 50/1
• Manny Pacquiao to win in round 3 — 50/1
• Manny Pacquiao to win in round 5 — 40/1
• Manny Pacquiao to win in round 8 — 33/1

I could make some shit up here, but if it doesn’t go the distance, I’m feeling an end to this tilt in rounds 3, 5 or 8. Mostly because that’s when most boxing matches that end in KO end and those are also the best tracks off any album, look it up. I love the 50/1 odds on Pac Man in Round 3 or Floyd in Round 5.

Round Group Betting:

• Floyd Mayweather Jr. to win in rounds 1 – 3 — 18/1
• Manny Pacquiao to win in rounds 1 – 3 —18/1
• Either Fighter wins in Round 7-8 — 10/1

The classic hedge: If I’m spending $30-$50 for my share of pay-per-view I definitely want to trim my losses should one of these old men go to the mat early. A $5 prop on a round 1-3 knockout more than covers my PPV losses AND gives me the right to be ‘that guy’ to stand up at the party and be like, ‘I called it’ while everyone else is still trying to figure out where the bottle opener is and Jay and Bey haven’t even found their seats at the MGM Garden Arena.

 

Pints and Picks Week 4: No bye week for bad bets

Each week DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen will pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here then, is their point-counterpoint for Sept 27, 2014. Or, if you’re in the car, simply scroll down for the recap (they may be verbose, but it’s better than clicking through a slideshow).

AJ: Kyle, why are there bye weeks in college football? I mean, I get why they’re there in the NFL—basically an opportunity to get arrested in the club and for the league to fuck with fantasy owners who deserve to be fucked with. But there’s no reason for this in college other than maybe to see what FCS campus gets the biggest spike in date rape and frat house electronics raids over the idle weekend.

I only ask this because bye weeks in college used to not exist and now that they do, it brings an even bigger air of “professionalism” (air quotes) and indentured servitude to the amateur gridiron ranks. If the NCAA said, “We schedule bye weeks around midterms because academics” I’d be good with that. Happy even. But the real reason is to stretch out the post-season and turn college football into a 20-week endeavor (i.e. almost two-thirds the academic year) for the almighty bottom line—of which the athletes themselves see not a penny (and that’s where the lap top thefts come in).

Since you’re pretty good about finding out the why of things the way I’m good at identifying the season of Magnum PI (and episodes) where he tries to track down the ghost of his allegedly deceased wife, let me know if you know.

Otherwise, I take it now that you’re off the schneid you’re not taking a bye this week.

Me, I’m still trying to feel this week out like a Junior High dance. There’s no match up that stands out as a stone cold lock; and it has to be watchable to be (not a word: betable). <-One of my cardinal rules—the other is to never trust a Yelp reviewer whose mouth is wide open on their profile photo.

For now, a couple quick comments:

• Why is Wyoming traipsing around the country in pursuit of getting bitch-slapped? Is it like an anything-is-better-than-staying-home-and-risk-getting-shot-in-the-face-by-Dick-Cheney thing? First Oregon and now Michigan State? It kind of reminds me of those Pat Hill-era Fresno State teams which burned through their Southwest miles to go get rolled up by the SEC and ACC and Big-10 before limping back to the parched Valley and dominating, um, Wyoming …and most of the rest of the Mountain West. To be fair, Wyoming does have a slightly guttier squad than they originally got credit for (think corn snow-fed defense) and should give Sparty fits for at least a quarter or two. If you can get a first-half prop bet for the Cowboys at +10 or above, that’s better odds than your drunk-as-fuck out-of-town guest trying to pull a credit card advance on the gaming floor.

• Missouri on the road at South Carolina getting only 6.5. The Gamecocks are hotter than a rescue pit mix locked in a ’93 Aerostar in the parking lot of the Piggly Wiggly since forgetting Manziel was in the NFL and dropping their opener against Texas A&M. The Cocks have won three straight and Missouri is reeling from what should’ve amounted to a midweek January stumble on the hardcourt to the Hoosiers at home last week. Can Mizzou regroup or will South Carolina’s Mike Davis and Brandon Wilds harass QB Maty Mauk who already has four ints to go with 14 teeders …and, you know what, this spread sucks. Fuck this game.

…I’m going to pause right there and say I was running some errands with a buddy during the lunch hour today (he’s planning a birthday party for a one-year-old which basically means crappy burgers, a weird sheet cake that is actually just flypaper with white frosting and a couple of fifths because apparently one is too young to remember seeing your folks and their friends black out) and we ended up at Costco. Still $1.50 for a polish and a soda.

The thing is, we were the only sub-octagenarains dining there. All these Burns-postured McMurphys who’d escaped from “Serene Gardens” next door were gumming on these intestines and entrails pressed into a tube while gangsta leaning off their Rascals made me wonder: Do the old folks know something I don’t? Like, If I have one meal left, it’s gotta be Costco (because it is glorious, especially when you remember to ask for the slaw) or does it just kill a lot of time to try to gum down a dog the size of your shriveled and veiny neck midday on a weekday when you’re at the station of life when time, quite literally, can’t go any slower—and yet, you don’t have much of it left.

I guess what I’m really trying to say is, I just have a lot more questions than answers this week.

Kyle? You there? You still reading?

Kyle: AJ, the middle school dance analogy couldn’t be more apt. I have an overwhelming urge to skip this week completely and tell all of our readers I was off doing some really cool stuff. In reality, I’ll probably be reading Madeleine L’Engle and trying to stay up for MadTV and hope my father (who, coincidentally, is visiting this weekend) doesn’t come out and turn it off when they swear for like the only time in the whole show.

MadTV featured the stylings of Michael McDonald (not this one, not that one, this one), a USC alum, and that’s my segue into talking about one of the only games that probably matter this weekend. With no ranked matchups, it’s going to be interesting to watch Oregon State-SC (-9) in the sense that it’ll be interesting to see your neighbor walk out the door with his 14-year-old dog tomorrow. Hey, still on the right side of the dirt, eh Fido?

The 2-1 Trojans are a technically, I suppose, still in the playoff race. Stanford exposed SC’s inability to get anything done in the red zone with a run game that’s hampered when it doesn’t have room to breath in a game the Trojans won 13-10. Boston College pantsed SC’s run defense in a 37-31 victory on Chestnut Hill. Both of these tell me the men of Troy aren’t yet sound in their line play. Mike Riley’s Beavers aren’t very good at running the ball on aggregate—they’re 91st in rushing in the nation—but in the first quarter, few offenses are as effective at running and passing the ball as 3-0 Oregon State, who put up more points early (10.5) than every other team in the Pac 12 North. If they can kick the Trojans’ line in the teeth early, I think OSU Quarterback Sean Mannion can play keep-up with a very potent SC passing attack.

Surveying the rest of the college football landscape leaves that bye week to be desired.

American Conference favorite Cincinnati visits Ohio State as a 15.5-point dog, and that’s halfway intriguing. Looking at the rest of this schedule is sort of like looking at the area surrounding Charleton Heston after that ship crashed in the first Planet of the Apes. Guess we’ll have to get walking.

AJ: Kyle, nice call on bringing the pops to town during the week of bettors doldrums. Now, instead of sitting indoors and inhaling the second-hand smoke of the sports book, the two of you can ramble around the Sierras inhaling the first-hand smoke of arsonists.

I think we agree this is a trap week as far as NCAA wagering goes. None of the spreads seem at all enticing and, as you pointed out, the dearth of compelling matchups (besides conference-centric spoiler games like Stanford at U-Dub) make this the week to take a BCS breather—and set the crosshairs on October baseball.

Namely Mr. Magin, the prospect of four very disparate and very under-(over?)achieving-for-different-reasons West Coast franchises making it to the playoffs.

It’s a Freaky Friday moment for baseball West of Lovelock. You’ve got the perennial lovable A’s who went out and made a splash at the trade deadline, only to wallow in the second half like so much locker room sludge through the AL West with dead arms and a listless clubhouse en route to a wildcard berth.

You have the predictably unpredictable Giants across the bridge who had a fiery start and a nine-game lead in May only to lose two-time world champion aces Matt Cain from the starting five (still unknown injury) and Tim Lincecum (still undiagnosed velocity problems) but somehow picked up where Oakland left off and went not with the big trades but with the white-flag youth movement: Hunter Strickland, Chris Hesten, Erik Cordier and even skipper’s son Brett Bochy have all contributed on the mound. Back-up backstop Andrew Susac has been clutch off the bench and in spelling Buster Posey and infielders Joe Panik and Matt Duffy have been key contributors plugging the middle whilst performing at the plate. The suddenly youth-infused G-men didn’t have enough in the tank to catch the boys in blue with the quarter-billion-dollar payroll and the world’s greatest stadium, but they do have a good chance of beating the Pirates in the wildcard sudden-death scenario and finding themselves the object of Joe Buck’s scorn again.

In Southern California, it’s a battle of swollen payrolls and depleting expectations. The Halos, who had all but given up on The Last Investment Albert Pujols till he decided to come out of the orange groves and hit a respectable .273 with 28 bombs and 104 RBIS (and he’s not done yet). Mike Trout is baseball’s lone superstar right now and the singing cowboy’s starting rotation featuring innings eaters Jared Weaver (18-8, 3.52 ERA), CJ Wilson (13-10, 4.61 ERA) and Matt Shoemaker (16/4, 3.04 ERA) suddenly looks like baseball’s best even without the services of Garrett Richards (13-4, 2.61 ERA). The hedge fund-backed Dodgers’ have the best pitcher in baseball in Clayton Kershaw. The once-in-a-generation starter-next-door has mastery of three pitches usually thrown in a way three different pitchers might; fastball, 90-plus, a makes-you-swing-from-the-heels slider in the high-80s and an elevator curve in the mid-70s. It’s like facing vintage Barry Zito, Pedro Martinez and Greg Maddox—in one at-bat. Kershaw recently notched his 20th win, has an ERA under 1.80 and tosses 100-pitch complete game shutouts like Drysdale the get away afternoon after a Saturday night bender. Kershaw alone almost makes one forget that any player who came up under Castro thinks hitting the cut-off man is a Fredo Corleone reference.

You got your Tigs Kyle, but the prospect of not only an all West Coast World series, but LCSs makes me giggle. I know Fox shares Erin Andrews’ resting bitchface scowl when it comes to the knowledge that KC, not NY will be in the playoffs and Mr. Jeter’s farewell bonanza is but a week away from coming to a cleaned-out-locker and teary press conference halt. All that historic footage from the pre-device ’90s shelved for roll out at Cooperstown in 2020. And what the fuck will Ken “He shoulda been-a dentist” Rosenthal talk about as Buck cuts Harold Reynolds off on the cutaways with no DJ?

With that, I’d like to be a sort of World Series wager Sommelier. First off, like a fine wine, many teams age into BETTER odds of winning Bud Selig’s final Commissioner’s Trophy as the season matures. But like your great aunt’s Bradford Exchange plate collection, not all teams go up in value. At the start of the season the last-place Red Sox were 12/1 (ditto Rays). The aforementioned Yankees, who are now 300/1 to take a Champagne bath, started out at 14/1. The Orioles who started the season at 35/1 are now 13/2—not bad for a runaway division champ. And your Motor City hardballers are a solid 6/1. For my money though, I’m liking either the A’s or the Giants at 12/1 to bring the hardware back to the Biggedy. After all, Giants fans, it is an even-numbered year.

Kyle, I know you’re headed out the door to see nature’s splendor with the man who pulled you out of oblivion and plopped you on this big blue-infused chunk of spinning granite, but I KNOW you’re laying down your World Series picks this week… so, (Pacino voice) what’dya got?!

Kyle: AJ, I’ve never been more happy to talk baseball during betting season, a sport I usually avoid at the book like the plague. It will also grease the wheels of conversation with the old man while we’re waiting for his knees to stabilize after I drag him up a few thousand feet above his normal playing altitude.

I, too, think the road to the World Series is definitely coming through California. Too many hardball-related planets are aligning with the Golden State. Dave Stewart is LaRussa’s new lapdog in Arizona. Scully is back again next year! I found out, just this week, that they still have an MLB team in San Diego.

As a Tigers fan, I hate to say it, but the Los Angeles Angels of Disneyland at 9/2 to win the series is the best bet at the book. Jeff Weaver is a horse, Matt Shoemaker has walked one guy for every 9 he’s struck out since the break and Wade Leblanc hasn’t given up a run in his last two starts headed into the postseason. Everybody has been getting on in front of Albert Pujols and he’s been driving all of them in—he’s got roughly an RBI per game over the last month, while Mike Trout continues to ape Barry Bonds with his slugging prowess. Gordon Beckham and Howie Kendrick have gotten on-base as often as anyone in the league over the last month. There’s just no way I see someone getting around this time save some massive power outage from Pujols and Trout.

In the NL—and I know this won’t be popular with much of our readership—I like the Dodgers. I don’t love them at 9/5, but in the “who’s going to win this thing” sense, I think we’re geared up for a freeway series. Which, wow, Randy Newman is going to RAKE royalties from FOX. It’ll make Erin’s Dancing with the Stars schedule manageable—I won’t have to put up with her whiny-ass Instagram posts from a private jet about #grinding from coast to coast.

We’ll get some hoity-toity reminders from the New Yorker about all the poor-ass people who got bulldozed out of Chavez Ravine 60-plus years ago to make way for one of the top-five stadiums in baseball. It’ll be gross and engrossing, all at once.

The Dodgers’ Matt Kemp, Justin Turner, Carl Crawford and Scott Van Slyke have been hitting the living shit out the ball over the last month—all four are in the top-15 of OPS over that stretch. Even with Puig’s second-half power outage, I don’t see how anyone else keeps up with the boys in blue. Selig passes out his last trophy south of the Grapevine.

AJ: Gotta agree it may be Los Doyers’ year and hey that Randy Newman song was supposed to be ironic; like how big a shithole-where-small-town-dreams-go-to-die-with-a-gooey-tarpit-center LA is. It makes me laugh every time the Dodgers notch a W and it bounces off the Hollywood sign and into the night. I love it! I love it! I love it!

Oh, yeah, the Huskies are better than David Shaw’s listless and unproven farm squad. Take the dawgs and the 6 points against the Cardinal (at home!) for a share of the Pac-12 North lead.

The PnP Recap:

Last week:
AJ: 3-3
Kyle: 1-2

Overall:
AJ: 8-12
Kyle: 1-7

This week:
AJ:
• Washington +6 vs. Stanford
• SF Giants (or Oakland A’s) at 12/1 to win the World Series

Kyle:
• Oregon State +12.5 @ USC
• LA Dodgers (9/5) or LA Angels (9/2) to win the World Series

Pints and Picks Week 2: Mayhem, Boilermakers and Cocks …oh my

Each week DPB’s Kyle Magin and Andrew J. Pridgen will pour on the prose with Pints and Picks™. Who to wager and what to drink while doing it. Here then, is their point-counterpoint for Sept 13, 2014. Or, if you’re in the car, simply scroll down for the recap (they may be verbose, but it’s better than clicking through a slideshow).

AJ: A bittersweet week of college football immersion ended with a dismal overall 1-for-3 debut for my picks.

First, the good: USC and the money line did not let me down. Though I didn’t anticipate a very SEC-like 13-10 Trojan victory at the Farm, it was nice to see the Pac-12 play physical—it was like watching a Lexus crash into a BMW head on or two douchebags with Tag Heuers arm wrestle over who spotted the girl across the artisanal cocktail ultra lounge on Tinder first. SC just seemed a little deeper on D than originally anticipated and Sark just a little bit more of a dickhead than imagined …and that was the difference.

Oregon’s second-half bleeding out of Michigan State was a huge surprise. We knew Oregon is faster to the line of scrimmage than a game of Hungry Hungry Hippos and the program is nothing if not about finesse and conditioning especially at skill positions and in the secondary. But who knew the Ducks would take 21 straight on the chin from the Spartans to end the first half and come back off the mat like LaMotta to keep grinding. The buzz prior to kickoff was how the Spartans would kick it uptempo and match the Ducks fast with fast. And they did.

But, I was as surprised to see the Ducks notching one in the win column for beating Michigan State at the line of scrimmage in the second half as I was at the fact they outlasted one of the most physically domineering teams in the country. They overcome the spread and the over.

And in the end, it was the Ducks who ended up playing the Spartans’ game, and winning.

Newfound physicality might be the theme for the Pac-12 this year. It’s almost as if a league-wide memo was sent out by commissioner Larry Scott saying if the the West Coast dozen is going to compete with late-night takeout and Everybody Loves Raymond reruns on the Hudson, they best start popping opponents in the mouth.

Cal’s quiet upset of Northwestern and week two fleecing of Sac State (the only NCAA D-1 school which features the Mickey’s Hornet as its mascot) might also mark Sonny Dykes’ Bears the newest team to watch in in the conference. (And let’s be honest, typing the words Sonny Dykes is fun, so Roll on You Bears). Cal features newly minted buddies with benefits Sophomore quarterback Jared Goff, perhaps the third-best under center in the conference behind Eugene’s Marcus Mariota and Westwood’s Brett Hundley—which puts him in the nation’s top 10, to wideout Kenny Lawler. Also a sophomore, Lawler showed Cal’s still got a thing for undersized acrobatic play making receivers. He may have a little of the DeSean Jackson, Keenan Allen DNA coursing through his veins.

It’s temping to get bettors’ redemption and go back to the Duck pond as well this week. After all, it doesn’t pay to bet against the Ducks covering. Since 2011, they’ve only not covered twice, including the post-season, and both of those times have been against Stanford. That said, I don’t like giving up 44 points this weekend against the 2-0 Wyoming Cowboys.

Lest we forget there are plenty of other options lining the golden coast. Along with Oregon, Cal and SC, Washington, Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA and Utah are all thus far, undefeated.

Though I’m more excited than a beehive dweller sampling a State Street Stout to see the Utah at Michigan line for Sept. 20, the number 12 UCLA Bruins at Jerryworld will tide me over like some barbecue and hipsterfied blues on 6th Street this weekend.

Though UCLA is a dismal 1-4 against the spread vs. Big 12 teams in their last five match ups, the Bruins even laying 7.5 is enough for me to say yee-haw. Texas, with an anemic D and QB David Ash out with no John Moxon off the bench, is feckless. Look for UCLA to burn the burnt orange by double digits and still have enough in the tank to put the horns on the hook for 40-plus, easily covering the 50-point spread.

Whew, deep breath. Kyle, do you have anything to say about teams that might take their snaps east of La Brea?

Kyle: AJ, I’m actually going to join you on the Best Coast before working my way back to places where the sun don’t shine (much).

That UCLA line floored me. Texas got hurdled by BYU QB Taysom Hill last weekend to the tune of 4.1 yards per carry and three rushing touchdowns in God’s team’s 41-7 smackdown in Austin. UCLA QB Brett Hundley isn’t quite Hill’s equal as a runner but he’s in every way his superior as a passer and there’s nothing in Texas’ defensive backfield that leads me to believe the nation’s 100th-ranked pass defense won’t get sliced and diced by the wing from Westwood.

God I love ATX, get down to Maggie May’s for the rooftop drinks, stay for the Cat Osterman sightings, but as you mentioned, this one’s being played under the giant Vizio in a Dallas suburb. No matter, I was talking to my UT grad-cousin last week and he said the Eyes of Texas aren’t really upon the Horns right now, the crowd that actually shows up for Horns games is quiet and disinterested. With David Ash still out, and possibly more Angelino expats in the stands, I have to agree with you that UCLA is going to cover in a big way and eclipse the over, if only because Jim Mora wants to show Red McCombs who he should have hired.

Finally making our way east, my eyes fell upon Georgia -6 at South Carolina. “Good Coaches Win, Great Coaches Cover,” according to the chuckle-inducing waitstaff t-shirts at Palo Alto’s Old Pro sports bar. SC’s Steve Spurrier has not been a great coach this year, failing to cover both in a blowout loss to Texas A&M at home in the Gamecock’s opener and again in a listless week two win over East Carolina—the Cocks were 17 point favorites and eked out just a 10-point win. Mark Richt’s Bulldogs are coming to town to see Spurrier’s ignominious streak continued.

Georgia Quarterback Hutson Mason averaged 7.3 yards per completion against Clemson two weeks ago, and South Carolina has allowed opposing quarterbacks a 72 percent completion rate in 2014, with the average completion going for 10.9 yards. So, even if Spurrier can concoct a defense to stop Dogs running back Todd Gurley (15 carries, 198 yards, 3 rushing TDs and a kick return TD against Clemson), he’ll have to deal with Mason through the air. At the risk of being chalky, the Dogs and the points ALL DAY.

Looking northward we come to the curious cases of the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Purdon’t University in Indianapolis. Notre Dame plays this ‘Shamrock Series’ game—which it annually hosts at sites around the country as its home-away-from-home-game at Lucas Oil ostensibly as a shout-out to the state of Indiana, which it neglects like a teenager does a parent.

Sure, I’ll sleep there, but I’m never hanging out there (playing IU), hanging out with you (recruiting anyone from the state) or being seen with you (pimping Notre Dame’s connection to the state at all in promotional materials. It’s Chicago’s easternmost neighborhood if you ask anyone in South Bend.) PU plays football because the schedule says it has to.

ND is a 28 point favorite (as of now.)

The Boilermakers’ defense has been mollywhopped by consecutive directional-Michigan schools to start the season–giving up 34 in a skin-of-their teeth win against Western Michigan to open the season and 38 against Central last week in a loss. Allowing 36 points per game isn’t what you want to do against Everett Golson, who leads a pretty balanced attack (260.5 yards through the air, 167.5 on the ground) and is backed by a defense that just goose-egged Michigan.

If I’m a Purdue fan, I’m wondering how it got to this point? You’re playing your marquee game of the season–nobody gives a shit about the Old Oaken Bucket—in your state’s hottest recruiting base on national TV on a frankly soft weekend in the college football schedule and are bringing nothing to the party. In an embarrassing league this is perhaps the most embarrassing participant.

AJ, I’ll flip it back over to you before letting everyone know what I think about this mismatch.

AJ: I recently had a buddy offer me an extra ticket to go see the Dave Matthews Band at the Verizon Wireless Amphitheater in Irvine. He hinted that the face was in the $75 range but he’d be willing to accept any offers. He didn’t want to just sell it on StubHub or deal with Craigslist people. I immediately told him it wasn’t 1994 anymore (which wasn’t a very good excuse—because in every other aspect of life and in all ways, it seems—I live in a perpetual state of 1994). Knowing this, he pressed me a little more and finally capitulated: If you can get down to LA, he said, the ticket’s on me. You can stay at my place. Just buy me a beer.

I weighed out my options like the Jerk, (“A postcard? OK, it’s a deal!”) Sure, It’d be cool buying a beer for my buddy, but in order to do so, I’d be burning through a tank of gas, several meals on the road and I’d be spending a whole lot of that time watching kind of saggy dudes in cargo shorts roaming a parking lot trying to get over on unsuspecting Santa Monica College fourth-years selling them weak-ass ‘shrooms next to a sad half-circle of gray-goateed early 40-something substitute teachers trying to hack it out in Tevas.

He ended up giving the ticket away in line for bag check in exchange for a hit off an apple bong.

…Which is about how I feel about the value of the SEC marquee match up between South Carolina (already 0-1 in conference) and the waaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa (catch breath) aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay over ranked no. 6 Georgia Bulldogs. You could offer to fly me to wherever-it-is they play banjos on the porch and give me a free ticket and let me wander around the tailgater taking surreptitious pictures of game-day crop tops with my phone for a grainy co-ed-at-tailgaiters-themed Tumblr blog and I still don’t think the effort would be worth more than a puff off a piece of bored-out fruit.

Or, to put it bluntly, if Greystoke: The Legend of Tarzan is on Oxygen at the same time Saturday and I have an opportunity to catch Andie MacDowell trying to lip synch to the overdub of her own voice, I’m all in for the lord of the apes—including tampon and herpes commercials.

Kyle already broke down the action on the field with much more veracity and actual football facts than I ever could. Possibly because he knows a little something more about how football’s played in the land of River Rat beer and possibly because I still haven’t’ forgiven Spurrier for creating Tebow in his moonshine lab by mixing his Chevy Silverado mechanic’s DNA with the book of Ezekiel, some Big League Chew and Rembrandt’s The Return of the Prodigal Son.

So, yeah. I think South Carolina is going to win. Because they’re at home. Because the Bulldogs are over-rated to the tune of Utah could go into Athens and come out with a double-digit win and a signed copy of Cosmic Thing. Take the Cocks and the money line. Don’t touch the over/under, though 58 points seems a lot of points for two squads who’ll spend warm-ups practicing the bunny-ear method on their cleats.

Once more back to you Kyle for people who actually, you know, care about football.

Kyle: Bring me your unwashed masses yearning to talk yards-after-catch and field position. Let them cast aside the shackles of narrative-based arguments.

AJ, I actually want to deviate slightly from the stated purpose of this column to offer my take on Saturday’s last great Floyd Mayweather boxing match.

Anyway, if you’re looking for some side action, or just a bet that won’t be decided before dinner time PST, consider the +250 line on this fight not going the distance. Assuredly, the safer bet is Floyd winning in 12 in a decision because Floyd always wins in 12 in a decision. But, something nags at me about this fight. It’s the fact that it’ll push Floyd to 47-0 that really draws me in.

With Rocky Marciano’s sterling 49-0 record in his sights—and assurances that he plans to retire after next year—this may well be the last legit fighter we ever see Mayweather take on. Maybe May will see the finish line in sight and summon the power he hasn’t had in a decade to go for a knockout if he’s up significantly going into rounds 10-12. Maybe Chino Maidana, who gave Mayweather his best battle in years in a split-decision loss this spring, unlocks the secret to Floyd’s shoulder roll defense and lands a whopper on the champ in a similar fashion to the pounding he laid on Mayweather mini-me Adrien Broner in 2013. Again, the safe action is Floyd in 12, but I think I like +250 enough to take a run at it.

To wrap it up, let’s get back to the pillow fight in Indy. 28 points is a massive number for the Irish to cover in the pleated pants and polo capital of the world. But, I can’t take a look at Purdue in good conscience and advise you bet the Boilers, so what the hell, let’s chalk another up and throw down on the Irish to cover.

AJ: Since I pretty much stopped reading my own rant right around the time Tevas came to play, I’d like to thank you Kyle from saving this week’s picks from spam-comment-bot oblivion with the Mayhem pick. I think Floyd goes down in three if for no other reason because everyone loves a comeback and Money knows he can double his purse if he becomes more of a sympathetic figure on the card. All the greats go down at least once. Why not now?

So, I was watching Fantasy Island Thursday night during the Ravens/Steelers game because I’m in a 28-day program weaning myself from the NFL and Alan Hale (Skipper from Gilligan’s Island) guest-started as Skipper-as-race-car-mechanic. And I realized, everyone, even actors, especially actors, needs but to find one thing and do it well. That’s the secret of life Jack Palance was talking about in City Slickers, I think. So, in the spirit of that, I’ll bring it full circle and do what I do best, picking late-game winners in the west.

My final play of the week is Nevada and Arizona. The state of Nevada, fresh off mortgaging its children’s and their children’s children’s children’s future to build $5 billion battery-powered car battery plant (sorry, #gigafactory), is flush with hubris and the 2-0 pack of the Wolf reflects every bit of the state’s gold rush 2.0 virility.

Brian Pollan’s squad did not win a road game last year and only took two against the spread. Their first win this year as 24.5-point favorites against Southern Utah was a wash but they quietly took down Wazzu last week 24-13 as three-point dogs, showing they can more than hang with the bottom rung of the Pac-12. The over (63.5) on this game strikes me as a bit of a slip from Vegas. Nevada doesn’t give up a lot of points, doesn’t score a lot of points and will slow play Arizona like a back-room card game in Minden. Though Wildcat coach Rich Rodriguez is looking to build a contender just enough to bide time till he’s back in West Virginia (though it’ll cost him seven figures) at season’s end, his promising freshman QB Anu Solomon 656 yards, five TDs and no ints in his first two games) might make Rich stay awhile.

Nevada’s shut-down D-line and fast ends will be Solomon’s first true test before he’s anointed the new king in Tucson. Take Nevada, the 16 points and the under and for the sake of the state, pre-order your 2020 Tesla minivan today.

The recap:

Last week:
AJ: 1-3
Kyle: 0-1

This week:
AJ:
• Wyoming +44 at Oregon
• UCLA -7.5 at Texas, over 50
• South Carolina +6 at Georgia (moneyline!)
• Nevada +16 at Arizona, under 63.5

Kyle:
• UCLA -7.5 at Texas, over 50
• Georgia -6 vs. South Carolina
• Mayweather +250 to not go the distance
• Notre Dame -28 vs. Purdue